近期，甲醇价格的飙涨令相关概念股再次成为机构关注目标。11月30日，百川资讯数据显示，多地甲醇价格突破3400元/吨，创三年新高。

　　业内人士表示，随着供暖季的开始，国内部分焦化企业限产工作已展开，环渤海地区受环保限产影响较大，加之部分装置检修，使得市场呈现供应偏紧的局面，整体库存处于偏低状态。传统下游方面，随着十九大结束，甲醛、二甲醚开工率有一定提升，需求有一定增加。据百川资讯分析，目前甲醇生产成本多在2000元/吨至2300元/吨，甲醇生产企业盈利将大幅提升。

　　甲醇价格飙涨

　　资料显示，目前甲醇生产地主要集中在山东、河南、陕西、内蒙古、四川和新疆等地。甲醇的市场价和生产成本具有明显的地域特征。有分析人士认为，按照目前的市场价格测算，每吨的盈利在1000元左右。甲醇市场价高企，使得甲醇生产厂商毛利率大幅提升。

　　记者发现，甲醇的价格在突破3000元/吨之后得以平稳。目前，甲醇价格依然维持在3000元/吨的价格之上浮动。

　　而对于此次甲醇价格飙涨，有业内人士分析，本次甲醇区域性大幅走高主要原因为MTO装置检修恢复及提升负荷时间相对集中及部分甲醇检修装置重启延迟带来的东南沿海短期缺货，为业者炒涨创造机会，期、现共振的结果。短线来看，随着天气转冷，西北检修季暂时告一段落，供应有一定增加，预计下旬将逐渐凸显。另外，11月15日，北方将正式进入供暖季，届时北方多省事环保对上下游的影响也将逐渐明朗。整体来看，供需面变化不大，主要考虑期货走势及MTO承压能力。

　　另有业内人士认为，甲醇下游主要产品烯烃景气度高，库存处历史低位，装置开工率高达87%，吨利润情况可观，对甲醇的需求形成较强支撑。下游产品甲醛、二甲醚受环保压力影响开工率低，但整体影响小于预期，后市需求已没有变差空间。供给方面，市场整体库存偏低，市场新增产能虽有增加，但增量在可控范围。

　　或拉升甲醇概念股业绩

　　对于甲醇价格的飙涨，有业内人士预计，“甲醇在供需改善及煤炭原油等大宗产品带动下有望继续坚挺，相关公司盈利能力有望改善”。

　　据《证券日报》记者不完全统计发现，在甲醇生产企业中，有远兴能源、新奥股份、华鲁恒升、金牛化工、山西焦化、中煤能源等多家上市公司的业绩将会受甲醇价格上涨影响。

　　资料显示，远兴能源主要产品中甲醇产能133万吨/年，产销量位居国内同行业前列。此外，新奥股份现拥有甲醇产能74万吨，产品占公司总收益比例接近30%。国金证券行业研究员郭一凡分析称，甲醇价格提升将贡献公司业绩，公司拥有680万吨煤炭产能，60万吨甲醇产能，业绩弹性大。

　　另据华鲁恒升三季报显示，公司前三季度实现营业收入72.33亿元，同比增长31.24%，实现净利润8.48亿元，同比增长31.51%。

　　群益证券行业研究员罗健分析称：“受国内供给侧改革、环保政策趋严等众多因素影响，公司主要产品氮肥尿素以及化工产品，如DMF、己二酸等价格上涨，带动公司2017年前三季度业绩大幅增长。目前公司产品价格高位运行，同时公司100万吨氨醇进入试生产阶段，预计公司第四季度保持高增长。”

　　罗健认为，公司100万吨氨醇平台试车成功，将加速全年业绩增长。据了解，公司10月11日发布公告，传统产业升级及清洁生产综合利用项目近日试车成功，打通全线流程，进入试生产阶段。该项目总投资28.31亿元，淘汰传统合成氨设备，利用新清洁技术建设年产13.68亿立方羰基合成气，即100万吨胺醇生产平台，公司氨醇产能扩增至320万吨/年。【马来石油】一乙醇胺（乙醇胺）该项目能为现有下游产能提供原料外，在新的尿素、乙二醇项目未投产前，能直接生产甲醇。

　　“甲醇价格上涨，国内甲醇生产商库存较低，后期仍有减产预期，四季度甲醇有望获得高盈利。”罗健如是说。

　　此外拥有34万吨/年焦炉煤气制甲醇生产能力的山西焦化，远期规划产能将达到195万吨/年。中信建投证券行业研究员李俊松分析，公司化工业务营收占比为29%，为公司第二大业务，产品主要为甲醇、炭黑、沥青、焦化苯等。2017三季度甲醇产量5.8万吨，环比上升22.5%，销量5.9万吨，环比上升30.8%，平均售价1823元/吨，环比上涨2.14%。

　　值得注意的是，今年以来，多家甲醇类上市公司为应对甲醇价格的大幅波动，开始涉足套期保值业务。以金牛化工为例，公司表示，受宏观经济影响，甲醇市场波动较大，为有效规避市场风险，对冲甲醇价格波动对公司生产经营的影响，下属子公司拟利用期货套期保值操作，进行风险控制，减少和降低甲醇价格波动对生产经营的影响。

Methanol prices soared three-year high High performance of many companies higher

Recently, the soaring methanol price has caused the concept stocks once again become the concern of the agency. November 30, Riverside data show that more than the price of methanol breakthrough 3400 yuan / ton, a three-year high.

Insiders said that with the start of the heating season, some domestic coking enterprises have begun to limit their production, and the Bohai Sea area is more affected by the limited production of environmental protection. In addition, some installations are overhauled, making the market appear tight supply Situation, the overall inventory in the low state. As for the traditional downstream area, with the conclusion of the 19th National Congress, the operating rates of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether will certainly increase, and the demand will certainly increase. According to Baichuan information analysis, the current cost of methanol production more than 2,000 yuan / ton to 2,300 yuan / ton, methanol production profits will be substantially increased. Methanol prices Soaring

Data show that the current methanol production mainly concentrated in Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and Xinjiang and other places. Methanol market price and production costs have obvious geographical features. Some analysts believe that, according to the current market price estimates, the profit per ton at 1,000 yuan. Methanol high market prices, making a substantial increase in the gross profit margin of methanol manufacturers.

Reporters found that the price of methanol exceeded 3,000 yuan / ton to be stable. At present, the price of methanol remains at 3000 yuan / ton above the price of floating.

And for the soaring methanol prices, insiders analysis, the regional methanol sharply higher mainly due to maintenance and recovery of MTO devices and to enhance the relative concentration of load time and some methanol maintenance device restart delay caused by Southeastern coastal short-term stockpile for the industry to create opportunities for speculation, the period is the result of resonance. Short-term point of view, as the weather turns cold, the Northwest overhaul season temporarily come to an end, the supply has increased, it is expected to gradually highlight the late. In addition, on November 15, the north will officially enter the heating season, when the impact of the environmental protection on the upstream and downstream of the north will also gradually become clear. Overall, the supply and demand side changed little, mainly considering the futures trend and MTO pressure capacity.

According to another person in the industry, the major downstream olefin downstream business has a high degree of prosperity and a historically low level of inventories. The unit utilization rate is as high as 87%. The ton profit margin is substantial and the demand for methanol forms a strong support. Downstream products formaldehyde, dimethyl ether under the influence of environmental pressure operating rate is low, but the overall impact is less than expected, the afternoon market demand has no room for deterioration. On the supply side, the overall inventory of the market is relatively low. Although the new capacity of the market is increasing, the increment is within the controllable range.

or pull up the concept of methanol stocks performance

For the soaring methanol prices, insiders predict that "the improvement of supply and demand of methanol and coal, crude oil and other bulk products Under the hope of continued strength, the profitability of related companies is expected to improve ".

According to the incomplete statistics of Securities Daily reporter, among methanol producers, there are a number of listed companies such as Yuanxing Energy, Xinao Co., Ltd., Hualu Hengsheng, Taurus Chemical, Shanxi Coking and China Coal Energy The company's performance will be affected by methanol prices.

The data show that the methanol production capacity of Yuanxing Energy's main products is 1.33 million tons / year, ranking the top in the domestic industry. In addition, the new Austrian shares now have methanol production capacity of 740,000 tons, the company's total product revenue share of nearly 30%. Guo Yifan, a researcher at Golden State Securities, said the methanol price increase will contribute to the company's performance. The company owns 6.8 million tons of coal capacity and 600,000 tons of methanol capacity, showing great flexibility in performance. According to Hualu Hengsheng three quarterly reports, the company achieved operating income of 7.233 billion yuan the first three quarters, an increase of 31.24%, net profit of 848 million yuan, an increase of 31.51%. Group Securities securities researcher Luo Jian said: "The domestic supply-side reform, tightening environmental protection policies and many other factors, the company's main products nitrogen and urea nitrogen and chemical products, such as DMF, adipic acid and other prices Rose, driving the company in the first three quarters of 2017 substantial growth. Currently the company's products prices high operation, while the company 100 million tons of amino alcohol into the trial production stage, the company expects the fourth quarter to maintain high growth. Luo Jian believes that the company 1000000 tons of amino alcohol platform test success, will accelerate the annual results of growth. It is understood that the company announced on October 11, the traditional industrial upgrading and comprehensive utilization of cleaner production project recently successful test, get through the entire process, into the trial production stage. With a total investment of 2.831 billion yuan, the project eliminated the traditional ammonia equipment and utilized the new clean technology to build an annual output of 1.368 billion cubic meters of carbon dioxide syngas, or 1 million tons of amine alcohol production platform. The company's ammonia production capacity was expanded to 3.2 million tons per year. The project can provide raw materials for the existing downstream production capacity, and can directly produce methanol before the new urea and ethylene glycol projects are put into operation.

"Methanol prices, domestic methanol producers lower inventories are still expected to cut the latter part of the fourth quarter, methanol is expected to be highly profitable." "Luo Jian said.

In addition, Shanxi Coking, which has a production capacity of 340,000 tons / year of coke oven gas, will have a long-term planned production capacity of 1,950,000 tons / year. Li Jun-song, a researcher in the securities industry of CSC, analyzed that the Company's chemical business accounted for 29% of the total revenue, ranking the second largest business of the Company. The major products are methanol, carbon black, Asphalt, coking benzene and so on. Methanol production in the third quarter of 2017 was 58,000 tonnes, up by 22.5% from the previous quarter and sales volume was 59,000 tonnes, up 30.8% from the previous quarter. The average selling price was 1,823 yuan per ton, up 2.14% from the previous quarter. It is noteworthy that this year, a number of listed methanol companies to deal with the sharp fluctuations in methanol prices, began to get involved in hedging business. Taking Taurus Chemical as an example, the company said that due to the macroeconomic impact, the methanol market fluctuated greatly. In order to effectively avoid market risks, the impact of fluctuations in methanol prices on the Company's production and operation was determined. Subsidiaries planned to use futures hedging operations for risk Control, reduce and reduce the impact of methanol price fluctuations on production and operation.