“橡胶助剂产业未来会向寡头化发展，行业集中度会加强，大型企业会有更强的定价权。”有业内人士表示，环保压力越来越大，环保成本也在不断上涨，企业只能通过价格提升来消化，再叠加产能的不足，短时间内橡胶助剂价格仍然会处于上升态势。

　　和精细化工产业的诸多分支一样，橡胶助剂产业的不少产品今年以来也掀起一波涨价潮。“原材料价格的上涨，环保限产造成的产能不足，下游需求的增加，是这波涨价潮的主因。”一位业内人士指出。

　　上下游夹击 产品价格大涨

　　橡胶助剂是橡胶产业链条中的一环，其上游原材料主要对应盐化工、煤化工、石油化工行业，其下游主要应用于轮胎行业，市场需求占比约七成，胶带、胶鞋、胶管等产品则占据剩余份额。

　　从原材料端看，各类原材料中，苯胺占有的份额好大，直接用于制造促进剂、防老剂等。用于生产防老剂的其他原料如二苯胺、氨基二苯胺等，也都是以苯胺为原料生产。因此，苯胺价格的走势对橡胶助剂产品的影响重大。

　　记者通过查询了解到，自2016年9月开始，苯胺价格便走入快速上涨周期，至今年5月，其市场均价已从6000余元/吨飙升至10000元/吨。虽然随后于7月底曾一度快速下滑至7500元/吨，但进入8月份之后，其价格再度暴涨，又一次摸高万元关口。

　　值得一提的是，苯胺主要生产基地山东地区近期环保承压，诸多中小型苯胺生产企业被迫停产。此外，叠加山东地区大型苯胺生产企业的停机检测、降负荷生产等因素，整体行业开工率明显下滑。

　　从下游方面来看，橡胶助剂近七成用于轮胎生产，其市场需求主要取决于轮胎市场。有轮胎企业高管向记者透露，今年来轮胎产量稳步增长，上半年总产量实现了超过7%的增长。8月份以来，多家轮胎企业纷纷上调轮胎出厂价。短期来看，进入8、9月份，轮胎行业将面临季节性的需求旺季，橡胶助剂下游需求有望稳步提升。

　　从库存量上来看，橡胶助剂今年以来一直处于低库存运行。橡胶助剂工业半年报显示，今年3、4月份，骨干企业多数零库存的情况，到6、7月份，一些企业开始有适量的库存，预计下半年多数企业可以做到“适量库存，稳原装进口【埃克森美孚 芳香烃 E定供应”。

　　“价格的传导方向是一定的，上游到中端再到产业下游，环环相扣。”前述业内人士表示，助胶剂产业同样处于化工行业，目前整个产业链好大的压力是环保限产，很多中小型企业因为排放不达标等因素直接关停。

　　环保趋严 供给端持续收缩

　　“空前绝后，我只能用这个词来形容现在的环保压力。”山东某环保部门人士向记者感叹道。“中央环保督察组进驻山东后，我们现在处于24小时随时待命状态，很多同事甚至直接住在办公室，发现环评不达标企业，立即赶赴现场，并对违规企业作出关停处理。”

　　另据橡胶助剂工业半年报显示，上半年橡胶助剂总产量为60.2万吨，其中促进剂约20.8万吨、防老剂约19.7万吨，销售收入为98.9亿元，同比增长率分别为-3.2%、-0.5%、-4.4%、-1.4%;出口量19.3万吨，同比增长7.2%。

　　下半年环保督查的进一步加强，再叠加需求端不断增长，橡胶助剂价格未来上涨动力依然充足。有业内人士向记者表示：“今年以来，橡胶助剂各类产品都处于货源紧张的状态，供给端不断收缩，是造成产品价格不断攀升的主因。”

　　记者从橡胶助剂专业委员会方面了解到，促进剂在2016年下半年一直处于货源紧张、价格持续上涨状态，高热稳定性不溶性硫磺今年上半年也一直处于供货紧张状态，几乎无库存，其产品主要生产商山东尚舜化工有限公司年产3万吨装置一直处于满负荷状态。

　　“新增2万吨高热稳定性不溶性硫黄装置本来预计今年9月份便能投产，但因为新一轮的环保核查，预计投产时间将后移至今年四季度。”阳谷华泰一高管称，现在公司基本上一直处于零库存状态。

　　未来涨价动能不减

　　记者统计发现，橡胶助剂华东地区主要产品促进剂M和防老剂4020的价格，分别较去年同期上涨26%和36%。“单看涨幅，橡胶助剂这个行业并没有那么耀眼，但平均两成左右的涨幅，在行业内已经算是史无前例。”一位不愿具名的业内人士称。

　　在橡胶助剂的另一个产品防焦剂CTP领域，阳谷华泰一直处于 垄断地位，长期占据 全Q三分之二的份额，其价格多年来一直稳定在3万元/吨的水平线上。但今年以来，其价格也在不断攀升。据了解，阳谷华泰方面9月份的好新报价已经到达34000元/吨，并且同样处于供货紧张的状态。

　　产品端的不断涨价，对于阳谷华泰方面便是净利润的快速增长。公司日前披露半年度业绩预告，预计上半年盈利8096.31万元至9595.63万元，同比增长35%至60%。

　　就能否增加新产能的疑问，有业内人士告诉记者：“助胶剂是精细化工的分支，其技术壁垒、配方保密程度都难以在短期内突破，并且在环保趋严的态势下，新产能已经很难再获批。”

　　另一方面，橡胶助剂产业“三废”的处理难度明显高于产业链中其他品种。近年来，不规范企业因“三废”问题频频遭到关停，但进行环保整改、重新开工并非想象中的那样容易，整改费用让大部分企业望而却步。

　　“公司仅环保设备固定投资上便达到1.5亿元，这还不算运营成本，1吨废料的处理成本大约在800元至1000元。不单单是中小企业，很多大型企业也曾因为环保核查停机。”阳谷华泰方面人士表示。

　　“橡胶助剂未来会向寡头化发展，行业集中度会加强，大型企业会有更强的定价权。”某业内人士表示，环保压力越来越大，环保成本也在不断上涨，企业只能通过价格提升来消化，再叠加产能的不足，短时间内，橡胶助剂价格仍然会处于上升态势。

The price of raw materials increased environmental toughening rubber additives still up momentum

& ldquo; The rubber chemicals industry in the future will oligopoly development, industry concentration will be strengthened, large enterprises will have a stronger pricing power. "Insiders said that environmental pressures are increasing, environmental costs are also rising, companies can only digest through price increases, and then superimposed on the lack of capacity, a short time the price of rubber additives will still be on the rise. As with many branches of the fine chemical industry, many products in the rubber chemicals industry have set off a wave of price increases this year. "The rising price of raw materials, limited capacity for environmental protection caused by the lack of capacity, increased downstream demand is the main reason for this wave of price hikes." "An industry source pointed out.

Up and down the prices of pincer products rose

Rubber additives is a part of the rubber industry chain, its upstream raw materials mainly correspond to the salt chemical, coal chemical, petrochemical Industry, its downstream mainly used in the tire industry, the market demand accounted for about Qicheng, tape, rubber shoes, hoses and other products take up the remaining share.

From the perspective of raw materials, all kinds of raw materials, aniline occupy the largest share, directly used in the manufacture of accelerators, antioxidants and so on. Other raw materials for the production of antioxidants such as diphenylamine, aminodiphenylamine, etc., are also based on aniline as raw material. Therefore, the trend of aniline prices of rubber additives products have a significant impact.

According to the reporter's inquiry, since the beginning of September 2016, the price of aniline has entered a period of rapid increase. As of May this year, the average price of aniline has soared from RMB 6,000 / tonne to RMB 10,000 / tonne . Although it was followed by a rapid decline to 7500 yuan / tonne at the end of July, its price once again skyrocketed after entering into August, again touching the million mark. It is worth mentioning that the major aniline production base in Shandong recently environmental pressure, many small and medium aniline manufacturers were forced to stop production. In addition, the superposition of large aniline manufacturers in Shandong downtime detection, reduced load production and other factors, the overall industry operating rate dropped significantly.

From a downstream point of view, nearly 70% of rubber chemicals are used in tire production, and its market demand mainly depends on the tire market. Tire executives told reporters that tire production this year, steady growth in the first half of total output achieved more than 7% growth. Since August, a number of tire companies have raised the factory price of tires. In the short term, into the 8,9 months, the tire industry will face a seasonal peak season, the downstream rubber additives is expected to steadily increase demand.

From the stock point of view, rubber additives have been in low inventory operation this year. Semi-annual report of the rubber chemicals industry shows that in March and April of this year, the backbone of the majority of zero inventory situation, to June and July, some companies began to have the right amount of inventory is expected in the second half most companies can do the right amount of inventory, Stable supply "

"The price of the conduction direction is certain, upstream and then to the downstream industry, interlocking. "The aforementioned insiders said that the glue-assisted industry is also in the chemical industry. At present, the biggest pressure in the entire industrial chain is environmental-limited production. Many small and medium-sized enterprises directly shut down because of non-compliance with emission standards.

Environmentally Tight Supply Side Continued Shrinkage

"Unprecedented, I can only use the term to describe the current environmental pressure. "An environmental department in Shandong said to reporters exclaimed. "After the Central Environmental 手感助剂ion Inspectorate stationed in Shandong, we are now on standby 24 hours a day. Many of our colleagues even live directly in our offices and found that the EIA does not meet the standard and immediately rushed to the scene and stopped and shut down the non-compliance enterprises." According to semi-annual report of rubber chemicals industry, rubber chemicals in the first half of the total output of 602,000 tons, of which about 208,000 tons of accelerators, anti-aging agent of about 197,000 tons, sales revenue of 98.9 billion Yuan, an increase of -3.2%, - 0.5%, - 4.4%, - 1.4%; exports 193,000 tons, an increase of 7.2%. In the second half of the year, environmental supervision will be further strengthened and the demand side of the superposition will continue to grow. The price of rubber chemicals will continue to rise in the future. Insiders told reporters: "This year, all kinds of rubber chemicals are in a tight supply of goods state, the supply side continues to shrink, is the main reason for rising product prices. Reporter learned from the rubber additives professional committee learned that accelerators in the second half of 2016 has been in a tight supply, prices continue to rise, high thermal stability Insoluble sulfur in the first half of this year has also been in tight supply State, almost no inventory, the main producer of its products Shandong Shang Shun Chemical Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 30,000 tons plant has been in full capacity.

"New 20,000 tons of high thermal stability insoluble sulfur plant was expected to be put into operation in September this year, but because of a new round of environmental verification, production is expected to postpone the fourth quarter of this year. "Yanggu Huatai, a senior executive, said the company has basically been in a state of zero inventory.

Future price increases will not be reduced

Reporter's statistics found that the price of rubber additives in East China M and 4020 antioxidant products were up 26% over the same period last year and 36%. "Just look at the rise, the rubber chemicals in the industry is not so dazzling, but an average of about two percent increase in the industry has been considered unprecedented. "An industry source who declined to be named said. In the field of anti-coke CTP, another product of rubber chemicals, Yanggu Huatai has been in an absolutely monopolistic position for a long time, accounting for two-thirds of the global market share. Its price has been stable at 30,000 yuan / Tons of horizontal lines. But this year, its prices are also rising. It is understood that the latest offer Yanggu Huatai September has reached 34,000 yuan / ton, and also in the tight supply status.

Product-end price increases, the net profit for the Yanggu Huatai rapid growth. The company recently disclosed a preview of its semi-annual performance and expected a profit of 80.9631 million yuan to 95.9563 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 35% to 60%.

To increase the capacity of new doubts, the industry told reporters: "Adhesive is a branch of fine chemicals, the technical barriers, the degree of confidentiality of formulations are difficult to break in the short term, and environmental trends Strict situation, the new capacity has been difficult to obtain approval. On the other hand, rubber additives industry "three wastes" processing difficulty was significantly higher than the other varieties in the industrial chain. In recent years, non-standard enterprises have been shut down for "three wastes" problems, but environmental remediation and re-start is not as easy as imagined, the cost of rectification so that most companies prohibit.

& ldquo; Companies only fixed investment in environmentally friendly equipment will reach 150 million yuan, which is not operating costs, 1 ton of waste processing costs about 800 yuan to 1,000 yuan. Not only small and medium enterprises, many large enterprises have also been shut down because of environmental protection verification. & rdquo; Yanggu Huatai personage said.

& ldquo; Rubber additives in the future to the development of oligarchs, industry concentration will be strengthened, large enterprises will have a stronger pricing power. "An industry source said that environmental protection pressure is growing, environmental costs are also rising, companies can only digest by price increases, and then superimposed on the lack of capacity, a short period of time, rubber additives prices will still be on the rise.