三季度以来，PTA期价整体呈现低位反弹走势，并录得今年以来S季度上涨行情。截至昨日收盘，PTA主力合约交投于5156元/吨。分析人士认为，三季度PTA表现偏强，未来新老装置投产是市场供需格局转变的好大变数，不过在成本和消费的支撑下，期价上方仍有空间。

　　供需偏紧带动期价反弹

　　从近期主导因素来看，中大期货能源化工组分析师张灵军、刘慧、张韬表示，近期PTA市场主要聚焦于三大变量：国内大宗商品价格波动、PTA检修致供应减量及下游需求表现强劲。

　　从基本面看，PTA产能投放成为市场供需格局转换的好大变数。据中大期货能源化工组分析，三季度PTA整体库存水平预计将消耗63.9万吨，延续二季度以来去库存节奏，市场供需整体偏紧。

　　从检修影响来看，金联创分析师邱倩倩分析表示，2017年9-10月，国内PTA检修力度远远不及2015年、2016年，但并未对PTA市场形成利空。随着翔鹭及远东装置复产消息的公开，场内心态略显悲观。另外，桐昆新投产220万吨亦将开车，一定程度对短期价格形成打压。“短期内PTA市场或难以出现大幅度提升，延续震荡观望概率偏大。”

　　成本及消费端存支撑

　　从成本端来看，PTA价格则仍有提升空间。中大期货能源化工组表示，四季度，在炼厂检修季结束之后，原油市场有望继续去库存化运行，WTI和Brent原油价格走势预计呈先抑后扬走势。PX基本面相对良好，市场有望进入去库存阶段，且油价预计表现一定成本支撑作用，均对PX价格走势形成利好，同时利于PX与石脑油价差的修复。

　　从需求来看，“四季度下游聚酯整体需求表现预期相对良好;10月嘉兴石化新装置开启运行前，PTA市场供需整体仍偏紧;若11月嘉兴石化新装置如期投放，而翔鹭和华彬无重启预期下，PTA市场供需结构预计接近平衡状态;若翔鹭和华彬解决当前问题顺利重启，则PTA市场供需将扭转为宽松格局。”该小组认为。

　　张灵军、刘慧、张韬表示，四季度，下游聚酯消费有望受到经营状况好转和新老装置投放带动，整体需求表现预期相对良好，PTA现运行装置平稳运行概率较大，新老装置投产是市场供需格局转变的好大变数。如翔鹭和华彬的投放节点再度推后，则市场供需有望维持紧平衡状态;如装置能按计划投放，则市场将重新进入供过于求阶段。另外，原油和PX价格在需求回升提振下，价格有望保持相对坚挺，对PTA也将构成成本支撑作用。操作上，建议以宽幅震荡思路为宜，预计1801树脂合约运行区间为5000元/吨-5700元/吨。

Supply and demand cost game PTA fluctuated in the fourth quarter

Since the third quarter, the PTA futures price as a whole has shown a rally at a low level and recorded a rally in the first quarter of this year. As of yesterday's close, PTA main contract trading at 5156 yuan / ton. Analysts believe that the third quarter PTA strong performance, the future production of new and old devices is the market supply and demand changes in the pattern of the biggest variables, but the cost and consumption support, there is still room above the price.

tight supply and demand led the period of price rebound

From the recent dominance of factors, China Futures Energy Chemical Group analyst Zhang Lingjun, Liu Hui, Zhang Tao said the recent PTA market mainly focused on the three major Variables: Fluctuations in domestic commodity prices, supply reductions due to PTA overhauls and strong downstream demand.

From a fundamental perspective, the PTA production capacity has become the largest variable in the market supply and demand pattern conversion. According to the analysis of Zhongda Futures Energy & Chemical Group, the overall inventory level of PTA in the third quarter is estimated to be 639,000 tons, continuing the inventory rhythm since the second quarter and the overall market supply and demand is tight. From the impact of overhaul, Golden Link analysts Qiu Qianqian analysis shows that from September to October 2017, domestic PTA maintenance efforts are far less than 2015, 2016, but did not form a bear market for PTA. With the disclosure of Xianglu and Far Eastern fixtures, there was a slight pessimism in the venue. In addition, Tongkun new production 2.2 million tons will also drive, to a certain extent, suppress the formation of short-term prices. "PTA market in the short term or difficult to significantly improve the continuation of shock probability of observation is too large.

Cost and Consumption Endurance

From the cost end, there is still room for improvement in PTA price. China Futures Energy and Chemical Group said that in the fourth quarter, after the end of the refinery inspection season, the crude oil market is expected to continue its operation of inventory. The crude oil prices in WTI and Brent are expected to be suppressed first and then decreased. PX fundamentals are relatively good, the market is expected to enter the inventory stage, and the oil price is expected to show some cost-support role, are formed on the PX price trend is good, while conducive to PX and naphtha spreads repair. From the demand point of view, "the fourth quarter of downstream polyester overall demand performance is expected to be relatively good; October Jiaxing Petrochemical new unit opened before operation, PTA market supply and demand is still tight; if the new device in November Jiaxing Petrochemical Scheduled delivery, and Xianglu Renhua Bin no reboot expected, PTA market supply and demand structure is expected to be close to equilibrium; if Xianglu and Huabin solve the current problems smoothly restart, the PTA market supply and demand will be reversed for the relaxed pattern. "The group thinks.

Zhangling Jun, Liu Hui, Zhang Tao said that in the fourth quarter, consumption is expected to be the downstream polyester business conditions improve and promote the launch of new and old equipment, the overall demand is expected to show relatively good, PTA device is now running smoothly run a greater probability The production of new and old devices is the biggest change in the market supply and demand pattern. Such as Xiang Lu and Huabin delivery nodes pushed back, the market supply and demand is expected to maintain a tight balance; if the device can be put on schedule, the market will re-enter the stage of oversupply. In addition, crude oil and PX prices boosted by the recovery in demand, the price is expected to remain relatively firm, the PTA will also constitute a cost support role. Operation, it is advisable to think wide shocks, the estimated 1801 contract operating range of 5,000 yuan / ton-5700 yuan / ton.