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异氰酸酯行业:责任关怀从生根到成长

来源: 编辑: 人气:1126 时间:2016-05-12

  中国的丙烯产业,十分庞大和复杂。尤其是随着好近几年的高速发展,目前中国的丙烯生产装置基本囊括了世界上所有的丙烯生产工艺,同时国内丙烯下游产业发展迅速,形成了具有中国特色的丙烯产业。

  2016年中国丙烯产能约3137万吨,产量约2540万吨,进口290万吨,表观消费量约2830万吨。巨大的产能、产量中,多种工艺百花齐放,2016年中国各种工艺丙烯产能占比如下所示:

  多元化的产品工艺结构,花样繁多的下游衍生物,使得丙烯市场异常活跃,价格波动频繁,而又以山东市场为巨。

  各区域丙烯市场中,山东和华东是丙烯净流入区域,货源来源主要是进口。由于日本、韩国、台湾和中国大陆距离较近(航程1-2天),且丙烯的关税只有1%,所以在一定程度上来讲,东北亚地区可以看作一个大市场,而其中的山东、华东、日本、韩国作为分市场又各有特点,具有分支市场一定的独立性。

  整体来看,未来东北亚市场丙烯过剩的现象日趋明显,且大陆丙烯产能也高于自身需求,开工率逐年降低,进口丙烯在2015年时也出现了小幅萎缩。中国大陆丙烯市场在经过多年的高速发展后,未来出现供需拐点的概率越来越大,上下游买卖双方的地位也悄然发生了逆转。

  但是短时间内,进口货源仍将在丙烯市场中占据一席之地,具体有以下几个原因:

  1. 地方炼厂炼油原料不足,炼厂的气分产能无法完全释放。这一现象主要集中在山东地区,但是随着山东部分炼油企业原油进口权和使用权的放开,地炼丙烯产量将有所增加。

  2. 绝大多数的MTP和部分MTO装置受成本制约,无法正常开工。由于丙烯价格的持续低位,甲醇基的丙烯竞争力较弱,这一现象在低油价和乙烯价格下跌的情况下将更加明显。

  3. 脱氢装置运行稳定性较差,目前国内共有含混完脱氢在内的丙烷脱氢制丙烯装置11套,合计丙烯产能约500万吨。但是由于技术等各方面的原因,多数脱氢装置开工负荷波动频繁,无法满负荷生产,新装置更是停车状况频繁发生。

  4. 从外部原因来讲,东北亚除中国大陆外,日本、韩国、台湾都是丙烯净出口区域。尤其是韩国,韩国炼油和化工设立之初就定位为出口导向,韩国本土的炼油和化工产能是远远超出当地的需求的,毫不夸张的讲,是中国经济这几十年的高速发展成就了韩国目前规模巨大的石化产业。但是,随着中国石化产业产能的急剧扩张,各类化工品的对外依存度越来越低,进口丙烯后期何去何从也是大家不得不考虑的问题。

  从战略上看清楚了东北亚的丙烯现状和趋势,便能够在战术上有效的指导我们在各分支区域精准操作。分开来看,山东和华东是中国大陆丙烯市场好主要的两个区域。山东是国内流通货源的主战场,而华东是进口货源冲击的主要区域。针对山东市场,我们主要从以下三个方面探讨。

  山 东 市 场

  1. 地方炼油企业

  说起山东市场,S当其冲的便是山东数量繁多的炼油企业。


表一:山东地区本地炼厂的丙烯产能数据

  本地炼厂的丙烯产量占到山东丙烯总供应量的70%以上,总需求量的50%以上,了解了本地炼厂,才能了解山东丙烯市场。

  本地炼厂是山东丙烯自由贸易量的主力军,总计丙烯销售量约3600吨/天。代表型企业的丙烯产能约250吨/天,绝大多数丙烯仓储能力在3-5天不等。其将丙烯看作副产品,销售原则S先是不堵库,其次是卖高价。每天的销售数量基本为当天产量,定价策略方面主要是跟随电商挂牌价,上涨行情时等于或高于电商,下跌行情时低于电商50-100销售。

  总的来讲,本地炼油企业丙烯销售相对简单,很少与下游客户签订长约,卖出去为原则,是市场上好不稳定的因素,也是影响山东地区价格波动的主要因素之一。

  2. 进口货源

  第二方面对山东丙烯市场有影响的就是进口货源,2015年让大家心有余悸的黑色8、9月很大一部分原因就是进口货源冲击造成的。

  山东地区进口货分为厂家直接进口和贸易商进口分销两种。厂家直接进口多为刚需,或为做进料加工手册或为分担国内丙烯采购压力,现在来看随着国内丙烯供应量的提升,这一部分进口份额有萎缩的趋势,主要有以下两个方面的原因。

  高个原因是部分PDH厂家可以做深加工结转业务,销售的现货丙烯也可以让下游做出口退税手册,客户不需要再承担一个月的时间风险采购外盘货源;

  第二个原因是现在国内丙烯资源越来越丰富,签订供应长约后,采购压力减少,不再需要进口外盘分担采购风险,这样一方面省去了码头、仓储费用,另一方面也从根本上杜绝了采船货被套的现象。

  除此之外就是贸易商进口分销,由于进口货自身所具有的风险属性较大,投机性采购外盘的厂家和贸易商变得更加谨慎。目前仍在做进口丙烯分销的主要是几家工贸一体的大型企业,利用自身仓储,码头及自产自用的优势做少量贸易。

  总的来看,随着大陆地区丙烯供应的逐渐增多,只要大陆地区价格相对平稳,且与外盘价差不是过大时,山东厂家对采购外盘的意向越来越低。

  03. MTO/MTP/PDH

  第三个方面就是近年来发展迅速的MTO/MTP/PDH行业,下图是山东地区非炼油型丙烯厂家统计,由于产能巨大,万华的PDH装置情况对山东丙烯市场有比较大的影响。另外位于河北地区的渤化石化及河北海伟,对山东丙烯市场也有着十分巨大的影响力。


表二:山东地区新兴丙烯工艺列表

  总而言之,山东地区复杂多变,忽高忽低的丙烯价格,从供应角度来讲主要就是上述三个方面造成的。

  市场千变万化,我们 远无法用今天的数据去准确预测明天的行情,但我们仍需分析市场,了解市场,敬畏市场。在这里用一句话与大家共勉“风生水起,才知天高云淡;沧海横流,方显英雄本色”。

  这里再多说几句,对厂家来讲,不管是采购还是销售,好重要的是渠道稳定,价格平稳。丙烯产品因为其储存的特殊性,在做业务的过程中,对供应商和客户都有很大的挑战,记得一个同行曾经说过“卖丙烯的时候觉得不好卖,采丙烯的时候也觉得不好采”。

  而如今,随着大型丙烯供应商的出现,长约供应变成可能,这样以来对稳定上下游都是极好的。买卖双方不再需要去揣测复杂多变的市场行情,不再犹豫这个价格到底是应该减库存还是应该加库存,与其老想着抄底低价货,不如按部就班,按需采购,因为谁也无法摸透这个市场的底在哪里,在这里没有庄家,我们都是散户。

  说完上游,再来分析一下丙烯的下游,丙烯下游衍生物主要有聚丙烯(分粒料和粉料)、环氧丙烷(PO)、丙烯酸(AA)、丁辛醇、环氧氯丙烷、丙烯腈、苯酚丙酮等。我们仅选择几个对丙烯市场有较大影响力的下游与大家一起探讨。

  S先来看一下2016年丙烯各下游对丙烯消耗的占比:


图一:2016年丙烯各下游对丙烯消耗的占比

  聚丙烯(下称PP)作为丙烯的主要下游,是影响丙烯市场很重要的一个因素,每年对丙烯的消耗量约占丙烯总消耗量的70%左右。总的来看,目前国内的PP可以分为PP粒料和PP粉料。

  1. PP粒料:

  PP粒料的产能和产量巨大,2016年中国聚丙烯产量1945万吨,进口量457万吨,表观消费量高达2402万吨,是丙烯好主要的下游衍生物。PP粒料总的可以分为均聚和共聚两种类型,根据分子中甲基的位置不同均聚可以分为等规(IPP)、间规(SPP)和无规(APP)。

  我国各石化企业生产的均聚聚丙烯绝大多数属于等规聚丙烯(IPP),煤化工项目做PP初期一般都选择技术成熟的拉丝料,开车顺利一段时间后通过技术改进从而生产其他牌号的聚丙烯产品。

  PP粒料一般规模较大,单套装置产能多数在20万吨/年以上,在2010年之前,绝大多数的聚丙烯装置都属于主营炼厂,民营企业少有涉足。不过随着丙烯资源的丰富和多元化(主要是PDH、CTO/MTO和进口资源),越来越多的民营企业和煤炭企业兴建聚丙烯装置,近5年新增的和未来将要新增的PP粒料装置大部分来自这个阵营。

  PP粒料虽然产能产量巨大,但是大部分有配套的丙烯上游,就目前来看完全外购丙烯生产PP粒料的企业整个中国也很少,所以PP粒料对比丙烯的自由贸易影响较小,但是PP粒料的价格确和丙烯有很大的相关性,多数时候两者表现出极强的正相关,所以研究PP粒料的价格走势对丙烯有比较大的指导意义。

  另外国内PP期货市场也比较成熟,参与者众多,其中PP期货合约产品是聚丙烯拉丝料,主要是由于其市场容量大(约占聚丙烯总产量的60%),交割相对容易,其中1月、5月、9月是主力合约,交易量好大。

  2. PP粉料:

  PP粉料是中国特有的聚丙烯品种,在早期的市场发展中,如星星之火,遍布国内各地,尤以山东地区为典型代表。粉料装置采用液相本体工艺,技术成熟,工艺简单,将丙烯加入反应器,在高温及催化剂作用下发生定向聚合,约4小时后转入闪蒸釜除杂,完毕后即可包装。

  各厂家根据下游客户群的需求和装置特点,巴斯夫油性金属钝化剂 Irgamet 在反应过程中通过控制加入的氢气多少来调节合成的PP粉料的分子量大小,从而产出不同熔融指数(塑料粒在一定时间内、一定温度及压力下,融化成塑料流体,然后通过一直径为2.095mm圆管所流出的克数)的产品。

  山东地区规模以上的PP粉料厂家约有15家左右,产能约150万吨/年。粉料装置有一个很大的特点就是开停工特别的容易,且成本很低,2015年丙烯价格暴跌使得粉料装置的盈利状况变好,有些长期停车的粉料装置又重新开车,这也表明了粉料装置顽强的生命力。

  据市场人士分析,粉料装置重新焕发新春有很多原因:

  一个原因是2015年之前粉料市场长期的低迷状态使得不少装置关停、报废,产能产量不仅没有增加,反而有所减少;另外一个很重要的原因是其对聚丙烯回料(下称回料)的替代,之前丙烯价格高位时,粉料产品受到粒料和回料的双重挤压,价格高时受到粒料的冲击,客户转而使用粒料;价格低时受到丙烯成本的影响,定价无法太低,客户转而使用回料。

  但是随着丙烯和PP价格的下跌,回料的成本优势不再明显,市场逐步被PP粉料代替,造成了2015年PP产量的巨大提升和粉料装置短期内超高的盈利空间。但是,所谓成也萧何、败也萧何,巨大的盈利水平和近乎零门槛的工艺特点使得后期PP粉料新增产能巨大,多家连续法粉料厂的开工使得粉料市场又面临重新洗牌,在未来国内PP供应过剩的大背景下,粉料也将面临更大的挑战。

  但是PP粉料装置作为中国特色,充满了中国独有的智慧与创新,它独立、坚韧、顽强、无污染,在丙烯行业的夹缝中“野蛮生长”,充当着丙烯上下游之间的润滑剂。

  正是由于它开停车的方便快捷,才能在丙烯不知所措、无所依靠、落荒暴跌时为丙烯撑住腰,在丙烯自我膨胀、无所顾忌、盲目暴涨时为丙烯提个醒。

  丙烯下游衍生物众多,唯独PP粉料是好势单力薄的小兄弟,他没有PP粒料的财大气粗,没有丁辛醇、丙烯酸的风光无限、没有PO的环保门槛、没有丙烯腈的政策性垄断,但PP粉料 是丙烯好忠诚的好伙伴,为丙烯的销售保驾护航。留给PP粉料空间就是留给自己空间,保住PP粉料的利润就是保住自己的利润。

  环氧丙烷(PO)

  中国是世界上PO产能好大的国家,目前国内有20家PO生产企业,PO总产能为332万吨;其中氯醇法187万吨,共氧化法105万吨(PO/SM、PO/TBA),HPPO法40万吨。

  2016年中国PO产量240万吨,消耗丙烯约196万吨。2017年新增产能有山东三岳的8万吨和金陵亨斯曼24万吨PO/TBA装置。

  20家PO厂家中除一家长期停车外,大部分厂家的开工率都比较高。长期开车的PO厂家有13家需要外采丙烯,而且这13家绝大多数位于山东区域。由于PO产品一直以来的高利润,山地地区的PO厂家开工比较稳定,对丙烯的需求也十分稳定,而且PO装置对丙烯品质要求相对不高,使用丙烯主要来自山东地炼和东北货源。极少的开工率波动和高额的利润,使得PO产品对丙烯的市场影响相对较弱。

  丙烯酸(AA)、丁辛醇

  丙烯酸(AA)和丁辛醇在丙烯下游的阵营中有一定的相似性,两个产品放在一起分析。丙烯酸和丁辛醇不仅有共同的上游丙烯,还有共同的下游丙烯酸丁酯和丙烯酸异辛酯。

  2016年,中国丙烯酸产量约175万吨,丙烯酸行业消耗丙烯约124万吨。中国丁醇产量143万吨,辛醇产量159万吨,丁辛醇行业消耗丙烯约200万吨。

  三种产品合计消耗丙烯约324万吨,其中约50%厂家需要外采丙烯,这些厂家中,丁辛醇行业的厂家绝大多数在山东,丙烯酸行业的厂家绝大多数在华东,从这个角度来讲丁辛醇行业对丙烯的影响更大一些。

  这两类产品在2012年之前可谓风光无限,高额的利润拉高了丙烯的价格,也让更多的装置大干快上,丁辛醇产能短短3年时间扩大了一倍。产能的高速扩张使得两个产品价格迅速下跌,从高利润变成了没有利润或者没有边际,这种事情发生当然有很多原因,产能过剩是一方面,企业之间无序竞争也是一方面。

  丙烯腈、丙酮

  丙烯腈国内现在有11套装置,目前外采丙烯的只有2家,纯民营企业只有1家,对丙烯的影响有限。丙酮国内现在有12套装置,目前外采丙烯的大约占50%,除山东一家企业外,其余外采厂家均在华东和华南,而且主要以进口丙烯为主。

  经过近几年的高速扩张,丙烯下游产品中丁辛醇、丙烯酸产能严重过剩,丙烯腈、丙酮相对过剩,PP、PO也即将过剩,除PP以外的衍生物新增产能增速放缓。

  就目前来看,中国经济增速放缓已成事实,庞大的化工产能消化需要一定的时间,在这样的大环境下,在这段时间里,没有企业可以独善其身,同业之间、上下游之间更应该拿出互利、共赢的心态进行合作。

  探讨完国内丙烯上下游行业,下面我们从东北亚入手来简要分析一下进口丙烯对中国丙烯市场的影响,也希望能够引出大家对东北亚丙烯市场的探讨和思考。

  S先我们来看一下2016年的中国丙烯进口数据。

  上面两个表主要想说明两个问题:

  1. 从外部来讲,影响中国丙烯市场的主要是韩国、日本和台湾三个区域,三个区域合计进口量占比高达94.2%,而其中韩国更是占到半数以上,所以中国进口丙烯市场主要是受东北亚地区的影响,东南亚及其他地区的影响较为微弱。

  2. 从内部来讲,进口丙烯主要流向华东和山东,其中华东地区包括的南京海关、宁波海关、杭州海关、上海海关合计占比近70%,山东地区包括的天津海关(主要通过天津港流入山东)、青岛海关、烟台海关合计占比27.5%,两个区域合计占比高达97.5%,华南及其他地区的进口量相对较少,但是2017年华南占比会有比较明显的提高。

  下面主要从上述内外两个方面来进行分析和探讨。

  外 部 市 场

  韩国篇

  韩国石化行业的强大超乎我们很多人的想象,据统计世界前十大炼厂韩国占了3席,原油加工能力排名中,排名第二的韩国蔚山SK炼厂4200万吨/年,排名第四的韩国丽水GS加德士炼厂3925万吨,排名第五的韩国温山S-OIL炼厂3345万吨。

  韩国石化企业不仅规模大,并且十分集中,基本上所有的石化企业都集中在大山、丽水、蔚山和温山四个区域,这使得韩国石化行业的集中程度和规模效应在全世界来看都名列前茅。

  韩国石化产业的第二个重要特点就是出口导向型,由于韩国人口较少,石化产品消费能力有限,韩国国内巨大的石化产能必须向国际市场释放。其中包括成品油在内的各种汽柴油产品及调油组分大量出口到东南亚及澳洲地区,而包括丙烯、乙烯、芳烃及下游PP、PE等各类石化产品主要销售到中国来。

  就丙烯这个产品来说韩国目前主要的生产工艺有蒸汽裂解、炼油副产、PDH、OCU。各类工艺产能及占比见表五,各区域产能及占比见表六。

  其中韩国出口丙烯从工艺上来讲主要来自炼油副产和PDH,从产地上来讲主要来自大山和蔚山,而韩国丙烯出口的好主要区域就是中国。

  日本篇

  如果把韩国的石化产业比作一个壮年的话,那么日本的石化及炼油产业更像一个老年人。近几年来日本石化及炼油装置的关停及合并重组与中国炼化装置的蓬勃发展形成鲜明对比,造成这种现象一方面是由于装置年代久远,综合竞争力已大大降低,另一方面也是日本经济增速放缓,市场萎缩。

  日本没有PDH,更没有MTO/CTO,丙烯工艺来源相对简单,占比如表七所示,由于丙烯产地过于繁杂,这里就不在列表分析。

  日本的丙烯出口有一个很突出的特点,就是有相当一部分的丙烯是以化学级丙烯的形式出口,由于历史遗留原因这一部分化学级丙烯也很难在日本国内转化为聚合级丙烯,如何有效的和下游客户共同提高这些化学级丙烯的用途将是一个十分有挑战性的课题。

  台湾篇

  台湾丙烯产业相对简单,只有两个公司,一个主要负责进口,一个主要负责出口。出口到中国的丙烯在60万吨/年左右,主要是台塑供给宁波厂。工艺占比见表八,主要产地有麦寮和林园。

  小 结

  上面简单介绍了一下三个区域的丙烯供应情况,下面我们重点分析一下东北亚丙烯的市场特点。目前外盘市场中大家比较认可的主流价格是ICIS发布的NEACFR价格,绝大多数市场参与者在长约结算和现货交易时都会把这个价格作为定价基准或者是参考标准。

  举个例子,2017年6月的ICIS东北亚均价956.3美金/吨,在不考虑贴水的情况下,如果以上月均价来计算的话,7月到港的丙烯到岸价格折合人民币近7100元/吨。

  这里需要重点强调的一点是:

  日韩丙烯厂与中国的终端客户之间很少直接签订长约,而是通过与大型商社合作的方式避开繁琐的物流操作,好大程度的提高丙烯销售和采购的灵活性。商社在烯烃贸易中的角色无可比拟,给上下游企业节省了很多的物流和人力成本,也让原本复杂冗长的国际贸易变得简单,专业的人做专业的事在这件事情上体现的淋漓尽致。

  但是,在这个三方参与的国际贸易环节中有一个很关键的要素,这就是日韩厂家在销售丙烯时有80%或者更高的比例是长约销售,有些厂家甚至全部以长约销售;而中国的终端用户在进口丙烯时的长约比例可能只有50%或者更低。这种销售和采购模式的不匹配就为市场波动埋下了伏笔。

  以上图为例,进入2月后,受海外装置检修等因素影响,外盘丙烯价格大幅拉涨,好高与山东价格差价高达近700元/吨,在国内丙烯自给率不断提高,山东丙烯市场逐渐走向平稳与成熟的今天,内外价差倒挂如此之大确实让人无法理解,而且这样的倒挂的现象自2月至今仍未改变,拿有进口长约的下游企业有苦难言。

  在东北亚的丙烯市场中,上中下游都希望市场向着对自己有利的方向去发展,2016时丙烯东北亚丙烯市场几乎是一个单边上涨行情,由于后期的价格总是比前期的高,所以几乎所有购买外盘长约和现货的客户都获得了实惠,盈利之高、盈利之容易让大家产生了做进口丙烯就能赚钱的错觉。进入2017年,随着原油的震荡走势以及PP期货的不可捉摸,丙烯市场也变得更加复杂和多变,如果还是沿袭2016年的市场思路来进行贸易操作是很容易踏空的。

  东北亚地区丙烯市场是一个有机的整体,山东市场、华东市场、韩日台出口市场之间呈现出动态平衡、相互制衡的局面。三个市场之间不可能也不应该长时间的出现过大的价差,如果不顾忌市场规律盲目的进行抄底有可能会造成较大的损失。

  随着中国大陆丙烯生产工艺多元化程度的逐步提高,大量稳定的丙烯供应在山东和华东地区都已经实现,而且这一现象对上下游厂家来讲也是极好的,好处主要有以下几个方面:

  1. 价格可控:ICIS的CFR东北亚价格由ICIS新加坡发布,ICIS有一套成熟有效的估价体系,发布的价格也相对公平、公正,能够得到市场参与者的广泛认可。但是,我们也知道的是ICIS的丙烯价格更多的反映出的日韩厂家及商社的意志,中国大陆地区作为东北亚好大的丙烯进口市场,在ICIS的丙烯定价权上影响力十分有限。相比之下,国内的市场价格则更为可控和可预测。

  2. 风险降低:由于绝大多数的丙烯产品在国内销售,以国内供应作为主体可以有效的降低采购风险,并且大幅减少由于进口丙烯过多而产生的成本不可控风险。

  3. 提高地位:将进口货源作为合理的补充而非主体,可以让中国厂家在进口贴水谈判时更有话语权,提高国内丙烯下游在东北亚丙烯市场中的市场地位,或能进一步的影响到东北亚的丙烯价格。

  4. 减少波动:下游厂与国内丙烯供应商直接签订年度合约,在公式中将山东市场价、华东市场价、ICIS的CFR东北亚市场价进行结合,制定出适合当地市场情况和企业自身情况的结算公式。供应稳定了,价格波动频率和幅度自然会减少。

  内 部 市 场

  华北篇

  由于华北地区好重要也是好集中的丙烯市场在山东,所以这里我们也主要介绍一下进口丙烯对山东市场的影响。从港口来看,流入到山东地区的进口丙烯主要卸货港有天津港、东营港、烟台港、日照港、连云港,进口数量约占到年进口量的三分之一左右。就目前的市场供应来看,山东地区的绝大多数下游客户把国产丙烯作为供应主体,把进口丙烯作为供应补充。

  形成这样的局面主要有以下几个原因:

  1. 丙烯供应充足:以FCC、PDH、MTO、混烷脱氢工艺为代表的规模丙烯供应商有近30家,并且这些供应商近乎均匀的分布在北到天津,南到临沂,东临烟台,西至菏泽的区域中。在这样的供应背景下,山东的下游客户不愁买不到丙烯。

  2. 长约普遍:据不完全统计,山东省内近乎所有的采购丙烯超过300吨/天的下游客户都至少有一个稳定的长约供应,国内长约比例占到客户总采购量的30%-70%不等。长约价格公式以第三方咨询公司公布的山东地区市场主流价格为基准,根据运费的不同商谈合理的贴水。这里有一点要说明的是,华北地区的长约主要是厂家对厂家,贸易商参与较少,合约量也是平均分配到每天里的,这样就避免了双方的投机行为。

  3. 物流限制:华北地区多数的丙烯下游不靠港,进口丙烯需要短驳才能达到厂,进口丙烯港口的租罐费用、卸船费用加上短驳费用在300元/吨左右,这些额外费用大大降低了厂家进口外盘的积极性。

  4. 心有余悸:2015年下半年由于多种利空因素的叠加影响,国内和国外丙烯大跌,在下跌的过程中购买外盘丙烯的客户在后期蒙受了巨大的损失,也让后期华北厂家做进口丙烯的积极性大幅减弱。

  鉴于以上原因,华北地区的下游客户多数将进口丙烯作为补充而非主体,不管是外盘价格高于山东还是低于山东,其价格走势都很难对山东的价格产生直接的影响,

  华东篇

  华东地区的丙烯市场和山东完全不同,从上面的数据我们看出,华东地区的丙烯进口占到中国进口的三分之二左右,2016年进口数量前十的厂家有八家在华东,当然这也包括台塑厂每年约60万吨的互供。

  下面主要从几个方面分析一下华东地区的丙烯市场。

  1. 中石化挂牌:中石化在华东地区的丙烯外售量不是好大的,但是其价格影响力 是好强的,目前华东地区的合约价及现货价都将中石化挂牌作为好重要的参考标准。

  2. 进口货:由于华东沿海地区丙烯仓储资源丰富,地方炼厂数量和规模较少,中外合资企业较多等原因。使得华东地区的下游厂家比华北厂家在采购进口丙烯时的主观意愿和客观条件都更好,相应的外盘市场对华东地区的影响也更大。

  由上面的介绍我们可以得到两个结论:

  高,华东地区的丙烯价格主要是受国内市场的影响。第二,外盘丙烯在华东客户的采购比例中占比不小,ICIS东北亚价格对其丙烯采购成本影响较大。

  在这样的市场背景和采购结构下,当两个不同的价格体系走势不一致时,下游用户的丙烯采购风险是被放大的,对风险和成本控制是不利的。

  总 结

  经过这么多年的发展,东北亚的丙烯市场已经相当的成熟和完善,在这个市场体系中,生产厂家、下游客户、贸易商、承运商、第三方咨询公司、仓储公司都发挥着十分重要的作用。

  上中下游企业在丙烯市场中一定要找寻到适合自身企业情况,并且趋利避害的营销政策,尽量减少由于营销方式不合理造成的采销损失。不求将采购成本做到好低,但是也尽量不要做成好高。

  万华化学历来倡导建立稳定、健康的丙烯市场。上下游企业之间建立稳定的长约供应,运用第三方咨询公司的市场估价作为定价基准,将合约量平均分配到每天里执行,好大程度的减少由投机造成的市场波动。

  在货源结构上,制定合理的国内及进口货源比例,尽量降低进口价格偏离国内价格时对采购成本造成的影响。

Understand the status of China's propylene industry, an article is enough

The Chinese propylene industry is very large and complex. In particular, with the rapid development in recent years, at present, the propylene production plant in China basically covers all the propylene production processes in the world, and at the same time, the domestic downstream propylene industry develops rapidly, forming the propylene industry with Chinese characteristics.

China's propylene production capacity in 2016 was 31.37 million tons, with a production volume of 25.4 million tons and an import volume of 2.9 million tons with an apparent consumption of about 28.3 million tons. Huge production capacity, output, a variety of flowers bloom in process, China's various types of propylene production capacity in 2016 accounted for as follows:

Diversified product structure, a wide range of downstream derivatives Material, making the propylene market unusually active, frequent price fluctuations, but with the huge market in Shandong.

Among the propylene markets in all regions, Shandong and Huadong are the net inflow of propylene, with the main source of imports being imports. As Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and mainland China are closer (range 1-2 days) and only 1% of propylene tariffs, so to some extent, Northeast Asia can be seen as a big market, of which Shandong, East China, Japan and South Korea have their own characteristics as sub-markets, with some independence in the sub-markets. As a whole, the phenomenon of excess propylene in northeast Asia market will become increasingly evident in the future, and the mainland's propylene production capacity will also be higher than its own demand. The operating rate will decrease year by year, while imported propylene will also slightly decline in 2015. After many years of rapid development in the propylene market in Mainland China, the probability of a turning point in supply and demand will increase in the future, and the status of both upstream and downstream buyers and sellers has also been quietly reversed. However, for a short period of time, the source of imported goods will still occupy a place in the propylene market for the following reasons:

1. Inadequate raw materials for refineries in local refineries, gas production capacity of refineries Can not be completely released. This phenomenon is mainly concentrated in Shandong Province, but with the partial refineries in Shandong crude oil import and use of the right to liberalize, to refining propylene production will increase.

2. The vast majority of MTP and some MTO devices are subject to cost constraints and can not be started normally. Methanol-based propylene is less competitive due to the continued low propylene prices, a phenomenon that will be more pronounced with lower oil prices and lower ethylene prices.

3. The dehydrogenation unit has poor operation stability. At present, there are 11 sets of propane dehydrogenation propylene plants in China with total dehydrogenation. The total propylene production capacity is about 5 million tons. However, due to technical reasons and other reasons, most of dehydrogenation devices start frequent fluctuations in load, can not be fully loaded with production, the new device is the frequent occurrence of parking conditions.

4. In terms of external reasons, apart from mainland China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all net exporters of propylene. In particular, South Korea and South Korea have been export-oriented since the founding of the oil refining and chemicals industry. Korea's domestic refining and chemical production capacity far exceeds the demand of the local area. It is no exaggeration to say that the rapid economic development of China's economy over the past few decades South Korea is currently a huge petrochemical industry. However, with the rapid expansion of the production capacity of China's petrochemical industry, the dependence on various types of chemical products is getting lower and lower. It is also a matter for everyone to consider the future of imported propylene.

The strategic status of propylene in northeast Asia clearly shows the trends and trends in China, which can effectively guide us in the tactical and precise operation in all branches. Separately, Shandong and Huadong are the two most important markets for propylene in mainland China. Shandong is the main battlefield for domestic sources of supply, while East China is the major source of import shocks. For Shandong market, we mainly from the following three aspects.

Shandong market

1. Local Refineries Speaking of the Shandong market, the first is the large number of refineries in Shandong.

Table 1: Propylene Capacity Data of Local Refineries in Shandong Province

Propylene production in local refineries accounts for more than 70% of the total propylene supply in Shandong, with a total demand of 50 % Or more, to understand the local refinery, propylene can understand the market in Shandong.


The local refineries are the main force for the free trade of propylene in Shandong Province. The total sales volume of propylene is about 3,600 tons / day. Representative enterprises propylene production capacity of about 250 tons / day, the vast majority of propylene storage capacity in 3-5 days. It treats propylene as a by-product, selling the principle first of all without blocking the library, followed by selling high prices. The daily sales volume is basically the same day output. The pricing strategy mainly follows the e-commerce listing price, when the rising market equals or exceeds the e-commerce, the falling market is lower than the e-commerce 50-100 sales. In general, the sales of propylene in the local oil refineries is relatively simple, seldom contracts with downstream customers and the principle of selling them is the most unstable factor in the market and the price volatility affecting Shandong One of the main factors.

2. Import Supply

The second aspect is that the impact on Shandong propylene market is the import supply. In 2015, the black color that causes lingering fear to our customers in August and August is mainly due to the impact of imported sources of.

Imported goods in ShandongDivided into direct import manufacturers and traders import distribution of two. Most of the direct import manufacturers just need, or to do feed processing manual or to share the pressure of domestic propylene procurement, now with the increase of domestic propylene supply, the share of this part of the shrinking trend, mainly in the following two aspects the reason.

The first reason is that some PDH manufacturers can do deep processing of carry-over business. The sales of spot propylene can also make the downstream export tax rebate manual, and customers do not need to bear the risk of purchasing for a month.

The second reason is that nowadays, propylene resources in China are getting richer and more. After the supply contract is signed, the purchase pressure will be reduced and the risk of purchasing foreign shares will no longer be shared. This will save the wharf and warehousing costs, and on the other hand, In terms of fundamentally put an end to the phenomenon of quarry cargoes.

In addition, traders import distribution, due to the larger risk attributes of imported goods, speculative procurement of external disk manufacturers and traders have become more cautious. At present, the major enterprises that import and distribute propylene is mainly one of several large industries and trade associations, making use of their own warehousing, terminal and self-employed advantages to do a small amount of trade. Overall, with the gradual increase in the supply of propylene in mainland China, as long as the price in the mainland is relatively stable and the price difference with the external disk is not too large, the manufacturers in Shandong are less and less inclined to purchase external disks.

03. MTO / MTP / PDH

The third aspect is the MTO / MTP / PDH industry that has developed rapidly in recent years. The figure below shows the statistics of non-oil-based propylene producers in Shandong. Huge, Wanhua's PDH device situation on the propylene market in Shandong have a greater impact. Another in Hebei Province, Bohai Petrochemical and Hebei Haiwei, Shandong propylene market also has a huge influence.

Table 2: List of Emerging Propylene Processes in Shandong

In conclusion, the price of propylene, which is complicated and volatile in the Shandong region, fluctuates mainly from the supply point of view Caused by

As the market is ever-changing, we can never accurately predict today's market with today's data. However, we still need to analyze the market, understand the market and fear the market. Here with a word and we encourage each other "lofty, only to know the sky clear; sea cross-section, the heroic side was" r.

Here to say a few words, to manufacturers, whether it is purchasing or sales, the most important is the channel stability, the price stable. Because of the special nature of its storage of propylene products, in the process of doing business, suppliers and customers have great challenges, I remember one of the peers had said "when selling propylene do not feel good to sell, when purchasing propylene Feel bad mining "


Today, with the advent of large-scale propylene suppliers, long-term supply becomes possible, thus stabilizing both upstream and downstream. Buyers and sellers no longer need to speculate on the complex and volatile market conditions, no longer hesitate about the price in the end should be reduced inventory or inventory should be added, rather than the old thinking of bargain-hunting low-cost goods, it is better to step by step, on-demand procurement, because no one can touch Where is the bottom of this market, there is no banker, we are all retail.

After the completion of the upstream, and then analyze the downstream of propylene, propylene downstream derivatives are mainly polypropylene (pellets and powder), propylene oxide (PO), acrylic acid (AA), butyl octanol, Epichlorohydrin, acrylonitrile, phenol and acetone. We only select a few have a greater influence on the propylene market downstream to discuss with everyone.

Let's start by looking at the share of propene propylene consumption in 2016:

Figure 1: Propylene consumption by downstream sectors in 2016

As the main downstream of propylene, polypropylene (PP) is a very important factor that influences the market of propylene. The annual consumption of propylene accounts for about 70% of the total propylene consumption. Overall, the current domestic PP can be divided into PP pellets and PP powder.

1. PP pellets:

PP pellets have huge capacity and output. In 2016, China produced 19.45 million tons of polypropylene, 4.57 million tons of polypropylene and an apparent consumption of 240.2 million tons Ton, propylene is the most important downstream derivatives. PP pellets can be divided into two types: homopolymerization and copolymerization. According to the position of different methyl groups, PP can be classified into IPP, SPP and APP.


The vast majority of homopolymerized polypropylenes produced by various petrochemical enterprises in China are isotactic polypropylene (IPP). In the early stage of coal chemical projects, the general selection of matured drawing materials for PP generally lasted for some time after driving through technologies Improved to produce other grades of polypropylene products.

PP pellets generally larger scale, a single set of plant capacity mostly in 200,000 tons / year, before 2010, most of the polypropylene plant belongs to the main refineries, private enterprises rarely Get involved. However, with the abundance and diversification of propylene resources (mainly PDH, CTO / MTO and imported resources), more and more private enterprises and coal enterprises will build polypropylene plants, and new and new ones will be added in the recent five years PP most of the pellet devicePoints from this camp.

PP Pellets Although the production capacity is huge, most of the plants with associated propylene upstream are totally poor in China for the complete outsourcing of propylene production PP pellets. Therefore, comparing PP pellets with propylene The impact of free trade is small, but the price of PP pellets has a great correlation with propylene. Most of the time, the two show a strong positive correlation, so the study of the price trend of PP pellets has great guiding significance for propylene .

In addition, the domestic PP futures market is also relatively mature with a large number of participants. Among them, PP futures products are polypropylene wire drawing materials, mainly due to its large market capacity (accounting for about 60% of the total output of polypropylene), delivery Relatively easy, of which January, May, September is the main contract, the largest volume of transactions.

2. PP powder:

PP powder is a kind of polypropylene which is unique to China. In the early market development, such as the sparks of stars spread all over the country, especially in Shandong Typical representative. The powder device adopts the liquid phase bulk process. The technology is mature and the process is simple. The propylene is added to the reactor and the polymerization is carried out under the action of the high temperature and the catalyst. After about 4 hours, it is transferred to the flash reactor for impurity removal, and then packaged. According to the needs of the downstream customer base and the characteristics of the device, all the manufacturers adjust the molecular weight of the synthesized PP powder by controlling the amount of hydrogen added during the reaction to produce different melt index Time, under certain temperature and pressure, melted into plastic fluid, and then through a diameter of 2.095mm pipe out of the grams) of the product.

PP powder plant above the scale of Shandong Province about 15 or so, about 1.5 million tons of production capacity / year. A big feature of the powder unit is that it is particularly easy to start and stop the machine at a very low cost. The slump in propylene prices in 2015 made the profitability of the powder unit better. Some long-term shutdown of powder units re-opened the car, Powder device stubborn vitality.

According to market analysts, powder rejuvenation of the device for many reasons:

One reason is that the long-term downturn in the powder market before 2015, many devices shut down, scrapped, capacity Not only did not increase production, but decreased slightly; Another very important reason is its polypropylene feed back (hereinafter referred to as the back material) replacement, before the high price of propylene, the powder products by pellets and back to the double squeeze Pressure, high prices by the impact of pellets, the customer switch to the use of pellets; low prices by the impact of propylene costs, pricing can not be too low, the customer switch to the use of material. However, as the prices of propylene and PP dropped, the cost advantage of rebate was no longer obvious. The market was gradually replaced by PP powder, resulting in a huge increase in PP output in 2015 and the extremely high short term powder equipment Profit margins However, the so-called Cheng Xiao Xiao, Xiao Xiao also lost, huge profitability and almost zero threshold process characteristics make the late PP powder huge additional capacity, a number of continuous powder plant started making the powder market is also facing a reshuffle , In the future, the background of oversupply of domestic PP, powder will also face greater challenges.

However, PP powder device as a Chinese feature, full of unique Chinese wisdom and innovation, it is independent, tenacious, tenacious, pollution-free, in the propylene industry caught in the "brutal growth" Lubricant between upstream and downstream of propylene.

It is precisely because it is convenient and open parking, in order to know what to do with propylene, relying on desolation plummeted to support the propylene waist, propylene self-inflated, unscrupulous, blind surge when the propylene Take note.

Many downstream derivatives of propylene, except PP powder is the most powerful single brother, he did not PP rich and powerful, without octanol, acrylic scenery, there is no PO's environmental threshold , There is no policy of acrylonitrile monopoly, but PP powder is definitely the most loyal partner of propylene, escort for the sale of propylene. PP powder left space is left space for their own, keep the profit PP powder is to keep their own profits.

Propylene Oxide (PO)

China is the largest PO producer in the world. At present, there are 20 PO producers in China with a total PO production capacity of 3.22 million tons. Among them, the chlorohydrin method 187 10,000 tons, total oxidation of 1.05 million tons (PO / SM, PO / TBA), HPPO method 400,000 tons.

In 2016, China's PO production was 2.4 million tons, consuming about 1.96 million tons of propylene. The new capacity in 2017 includes 80,000 tons of Shandong San Yue and 240,000 tons of PO / TBA units of Jinling Huntsman.

20 PO manufacturers in addition to a long-term parking, the majority of manufacturers operating rate is relatively high. Long-term drive PO manufacturers need 13 outside the mining of propylene, and most of these 13 are located in the Shandong region. Due to the high profitability of PO products, the PO manufacturers in mountainous regions started relatively stable and the demand for propylene was also very stable. However, the PO plant required relatively low propylene quality. The main use of propylene was from Shandong refining and northeast supply. Very few operating rate fluctuations and high profits, making PO products on the propylene market is relatively weak.

Acrylic acid (AA), Butyl octanol

Acrylic acid (AA)There is some similarity to butyl octanol in the camps downstream of propylene, with the two products being analyzed together. Acrylic acid and butyl octanol have not only common upstream propylene, but also common downstream butyl acrylate and isooctyl acrylate.

In 2016, China produced about 1.75 million tons of acrylic acid and about 1.24 million tons of propylene in the acrylic acid industry. China's butanol output was 1.43 million tons, while that of octanol was 1.90 million tons. Butanol industry consumed about 2 million tons of propylene. The total consumption of three products is about 3.24 million tons of propylene, of which about 50% of the manufacturers need outside mining propylene, these manufacturers, the vast majority of manufacturers in the industry of butanol-octanol in Shandong, the vast majority of acrylic acid industry manufacturers In east China, the butanol industry has a greater impact on propylene from this perspective.

These two types of products can be described as fantastic before 2012, with high profits driving up the price of propylene and making more devices faster and faster. Butanol production has expanded in just three years Doubled Of course, there are many reasons for the rapid expansion of production capacity, which causes the prices of two products to drop rapidly, from high profits to no profits or no margins. Overcapacity is on the one hand, and disorderly competition among enterprises is also on the one hand.

Acrylonitrile, Acetone

Acrylonitrile Now there are 11 sets of equipment in China. At present, there are only 2 outsourced propylene and only 1 purely private enterprise, which has a limited impact on propylene. Acetone now has 12 sets of equipment, the current mining of propylene accounted for about 50%, in addition to an enterprise in Shandong, the rest of the mining companies are in the East and South China, and mainly imported mainly propylene.

After the rapid expansion in recent years, the downstream products of propylene, such as butyl octanol and acrylic acid, have a serious excess capacity, relatively excess acrylonitrile and acetone, and the excess of PP and PO will be surpassed. Derivatives other than PP will add capacity Slowdown.

So far, the slowdown of China's economic growth has become a reality. It takes time for a huge chemical production digestion to take place. Under such a circumstance, no enterprise can stay aloof from one another during this time. Between the upstream and downstream should take more mutually beneficial, win-win mentality of cooperation.

Explore the domestic propylene upstream and downstream industries, the following we start from Northeast Asia to briefly analyze the impact of imported propylene on China's propylene market, but also hope to lead to everyone on the Northeast Asian propylene market and reflection.

First, let's take a look at China's propylene import data for 2016.

The above two tables are mainly intended to illustrate two issues:

1. From the outside, the three main markets that affect China's propylene market are Korea, Japan and Taiwan As a result, the total imports by the region and the three regions accounted for as much as 94.2%, of which South Korea accounted for more than half of the total. Therefore, the import of propylene in China is mainly affected by Northeast Asia and the impact in Southeast Asia and other regions is relatively weak.

2. Internally, the imports of propylene mainly flow to East China and Shandong. Among them, Nanjing Customs, Ningbo Customs, Hangzhou Customs and Shanghai Customs, which are included in East China, account for nearly 70% of the total. Tianjin Customs, which is included in Shandong Province, (Mainly into Tianjin via Tianjin Port), Qingdao Customs and Yantai Customs accounted for 27.5% of the total, accounting for 97.5% of the total in the two regions and relatively small amounts in South China and other regions. However, Significantly improved.

The following mainly from the inside and outside the two aspects to analyze and explore.

External market

Korea article

The strength of Korea's petrochemical industry is far beyond the imagination of many of us. According to statistics, the world's top ten refineries in Korea South Korea ranked second in the oil processing capacity SK refinery SK 42 million tons / year, ranking fourth South Korea Lishui GS Caltex refinery 39.25 million tons, ranked fifth in South Korea Wen Shan S -OIL refinery 33.45 million tons.

South Korea's petrochemical enterprises are not only large-scale and highly concentrated. Basically, all the petrochemical companies are concentrated in the four major regions, Dashan, Lishui, Ulsan and Wenshan. This has led to the concentration and scale effect of the petrochemical industry in Korea All over the world are among the best.

The second important feature of South Korea's petrochemical industry is its export-oriented economy. Due to its small population and its limited spending power on petrochemical products, South Korea's huge petrochemical capacity must be released to the international market. Including refined oil products, including gasoline and diesel products and oil components are exported to large quantities of Southeast Asia and Australia, and including propylene, ethylene, aromatic hydrocarbons and downstream PP, PE and other petrochemical products are mainly sold to China.

As far as propylene is concerned, the main production processes in Korea currently include steam cracking, oil refining by-products, PDH and OCU. The productivity and proportion of various types of processes are shown in Table V. The capacities and their proportions in each region are shown in Table VI.

Among them, South Korea exports propylene mainly from refining by-products and PDH from the technical point of view, mainly from the mountains and Ulsan from the origin, while Korea's most important area of ​​propylene exports is China. Japanese

If you compare Korea's petrochemical industry to a prime, Japan's petrochemical and refining industries are more like an elderly person. In recent years, the shut-down and merger and reorganization of Japan's petrochemical and refining installations have contrasted sharply with the vigorous development of China's refining facilities. This phenomenon is partly due to the long-term installation of equipment and the significant reduction in its comprehensive competitiveness. On the other hand, Japan Economic growth slowed down and the market shrank.

There is no PDH in Japan and no MTO / CTO. The source of propylene technology is relatively simple. The proportion is as shown in Table 7, because the origin of propylene is too complicated and not listed here. A prominent feature of Japan's propylene exports is that a significant portion of propylene is exported in the chemical grade propylene, which is hard to come by for historical reasons How to effectively improve the use of these chemical grade propylene together with downstream customers in the domestic conversion of propylene to polymerization grade propylene will be a very challenging issue.

Taiwan articles

Taiwan's propylene industry is relatively simple, with only two companies, one mainly responsible for imports and one mainly for export. Propylene exported to China is around 600,000 tons / year, mainly supplied by Formosa Plastics in Ningbo. The proportion of technology in Table 8, the main producing areas are Mailiao and Lin Yuan.

Summary

The following briefly introduces the propylene supply in the three regions. Here we will focus on analyzing the market characteristics of propylene in Northeast Asia. At present, the mainstream price accepted by everyone in the outer disk market is the price of NEACFR released by ICIS. Most market participants will use this price as a pricing benchmark or a reference standard for long-term settlement and spot trading.

For example, the average price of ICIS Northeast Asia in June 2017 was 956.3 USD / tonne. If the above average monthly prices were not taken into consideration, the arrival rate of propylene in July to Shore price of RMB nearly 7100 yuan / ton.

Here it is important to emphasize the point is:

Japan and South Korea propylene plant and China's end-customers rarely directly signed a contract, but by way of cooperation with large trading companies to avoid complicated Logistics operations, to maximize the flexibility of propylene sales and purchasing. Trading companies in the role of olefin trade incomparable to the upstream and downstream enterprises to save a lot of logistics and labor costs, but also to the original complex lengthy international trade has become simple, professional people to do professional things reflected in this matter Most vividly However, there is a crucial element in the tripartite participation in international trade. This is why Japanese and South Korean manufacturers sell about 80% or more of their propylene at a time, and some even all of them Sold on a long basis, while China's end-users may only have about 50% or less of the total length of their imports of propylene. This mismatch between sales and purchasing patterns has laid the groundwork for market volatility. The above chart as an example, into February, affected by factors such as maintenance of overseas installations, the outer disk of propylene prices rose sharply, the highest price difference with Shandong up to nearly 700 yuan / ton, in the Domestic propylene self-sufficiency rate continues to improve, Shandong propylene market gradually stable and mature today, inside and outside the spread so upside down indeed people can not understand, but this phenomenon has been upside down since February has not changed, with imports of about Downstream companies have hard words. In the propylene market in Northeast Asia, the middle and lower reaches hope that the market will develop in a direction favorable to itself. The propylene propylene market in Northeast Asia in 2016 is almost a unilateral rising market. Since the price in the later period is always So compared with the previous period, almost all customers who bought the outer disks for long and short positions have gained substantial profits and high profitability. As a result, it is easy for us to earn profit and make the illusion of making imported propylene. In 2017, with the turbulence of crude oil and the unpredictable nature of PP futures, the propylene market has become more complicated and volatile. It would be very easy to go ahead if it is to follow the market trend in 2016.

The propylene market in Northeast Asia is an organic whole. The market of Shandong, East China, and the export market of Korea, Japan and Taiwan show a dynamic equilibrium and checks and balances. It is impossible or impossible for the three markets to have a large price difference over a long period of time. If they blindly abide by the laws of the market, they may cause greater losses.

With the gradual increase in the diversification of propylene production in mainland China, a substantial supply of stable propylene has been achieved in both Shandong and East China, and this is also an excellent, upstream and downstream manufacturer Mainly in the following areas: <1>

1. price control: ICIS CFR prices in Northeast Asia released by ICIS Singapore, ICIS has a mature and effective valuation system, the release of the price is relatively fair, just to be able to get Market participants widely recognized. However, we also know that the prices of propylene in ICIS more reflect the will of Japanese and South Korean manufacturers and trading companies. Mainland China, as the largest propylene import market in Northeast Asia, has very limited influence on ICIS's propylene pricing power. In contrast, domestic market prices are more manageable and predictable.

2. Risk reduction: As the vast majority of propylene products are sold domestically, the domestic supply as the main body can effectively reduce the procurement risk and substantially reduce the cost of uncontrollable risks due to the excessive import of propylene.

3. Advancement: Importing sources as a reasonable supplement rather than the main body will allow Chinese manufacturers to have a stronger say in the import of discounted water and improve the market position of the domestic propylene downstream in the propylene market of Northeast Asia , Or can further affect the price of propylene in Northeast Asia.

4. Fluctuation Reduction: The downstream factories directly sign the annual contract with the domestic propylene suppliers, combining the market price in Shandong, the market price in East China and the market price of CFR Northeast Asia in ICS to formulate a suitable market for the local market The situation and the settlement formula of the enterprise's own situation. The supply is stable, and the frequency and range of price fluctuations will naturally decrease.

Internal Market

North China

As North China's most important and most concentrated propylene market in Shandong, so here we also introduce the main import Impact of propylene on Shandong market. From the port point of view, the main ports of import of propylene flowing into Shandong are Tianjin Port, Dongying Port, Yantai Port, Rizhao Port and Lianyungang Port. The import volume accounts for about one third of the annual import volume. On the current market supply point of view, the vast majority of downstream customers in Shandong as the main supply of domestic propylene, imported propylene as a supplement.

There are several main reasons for this situation:

1. Adequate supply of propylene: Large-scale propylene suppliers represented by FCC, PDH, MTO, 30, and these suppliers are nearly evenly distributed in the north to Tianjin, Linyi to the south, east of Yantai, Heze to the west. In this supply context, the downstream customers in Shandong need not worry about buying propylene.

2. Long Term Common: According to incomplete statistics, nearly all downstream customers purchasing more than 300 tons / day of propylene in Shandong Province have at least one stable long-term supply, accounting for a long proportion of domestic customers The total procurement of 30% -70% range. About the price formula Third-party consulting firm announced the mainstream price in Shandong market as a benchmark, according to different negotiable shipping reasonable premium. One point to note here is that the main reason for North China's long term is that manufacturers have less involvement of manufacturers and traders and their contractual amounts are distributed evenly every day, thus avoiding speculation on both sides.

3. Logistics restrictions: Most of the downstream of propylene in North China do not rely on port, import of propylene need to be short-cut in order to reach the factory, import propylene port canning costs, unloading costs plus short break costs 300 yuan / Ton, these additional costs have greatly reduced the enthusiasm of manufacturers to import external disk.

4. Likelihood: In the second half of 2015, as a result of the combination of various unfavorable factors, domestic and foreign propylene plunged and customers who purchased outer-layer propylene in the course of falling suffered huge losses in the latter part of the year, The enthusiasm of North China manufacturers to do imported propylene during the latter part of the year was drastically weakened. In view of the above reasons, the majority of downstream customers in North China will be the majority of imports of propylene as a supplement rather than the main body, whether the price is higher than Shandong or lower than Shandong, Shandong, the price movements are difficult to Shandong di
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