近期，乙烷裂解制乙烯工艺以其低成本、高收率、高回报的优势迅速引起国内炼化企业的关注。但同时也有不少业内人士认为这一路线尚具风险，物流、供应等都成为他们关注的焦点。6月14-16日于北京举办的“2017（第六届）亚洲炼油和石化科技大会”上，在“以进口乙烷为原料在我国发展乙烷裂解制乙烯的可行性探索”这一访谈环节，几位参与嘉宾对以下内容进行了精彩的讨论和对话。在他们看来，供应量、物流运输、工艺都不再是问题。

供应量是否有问题

　　石油和化学工业规划院副院长史献平认为，乙烷裂解制乙烯路线主要具备两大方面的优势：一是投资较低，二是原料成本较低，尤其是乙烷目前在价格上处于低点，大概比石脑油低1000~2000元/吨，成本优势巨大。但是，史献平提醒说，这条路线不仅仅只有优势，它还存在两个劣势：一个是原料风险问题，因为国内没乙烷资源，主要依靠从美国进口，所以就有资源量、价格和物流运输的风险；另一个就是产品比较单一，主要产品就只有乙烯，其他的副产品几乎没有，一旦乙烯的下游产品价格下降，生产企业将会承受很大的压力。

　　在IHS油品及NGL中游市场董事总经理Darryl•W•Rogers看来，乙烷供应量并不是主要问题，价格波动仍然是乙烷制乙烯路线的好大风险。

　　Rogers表示，在供应量方面，当前 全Q乙烷需求约为每天140万吨，乙烷的产能约为每天240万吨左右，产能在未来的两三年如果有一定的上升，供应量也将随之增加。 　　

价格是否会现波动

　　“当前乙烷的价格非常低，同时也有大量的乙烷可以帮助我们进行乙烯的生产，但是我们需要考虑一些传统裂解原料作为选项，因为我觉得乙烷的价格不会持续维持在低迷的水平。乙烷价格将会与原油价格形成关联性，从历史上看来，比如根据石脑油在中国的使用情况来看，今后乙烷价格可能会有极大的波动。”Rogers说。

　　在工艺方面，KBRS席烯烃技术顾问Michael•J•Tallman认为，乙烷裂解收率可达80%，而其他原料都无法实现这一点。

　　“如果你没有打算生产别的产品，只想要乙烯，就可以选择使用乙烷的技术路线，如果还想要其他产品的话，比如生产苯等副产品，建议就不要采用乙烷这条技术路线欧励隆（原） 49L了。”Tallman说。

物流建设是否能跟上

　　相比于价格、工艺等方面存在一定风险，业内人士认为，乙烷的物流运输方面情况较为乐观。

　　据了解，乙烷物流运输主要包括美国管道情况、出口终端情况、海上运输和中国接收终端情况。康泰斯集团执行副总裁Ajay Dashqutre表示，美国的管道设施已经非常完善，美国主要有两个出口乙烷的港口，一个是在南部的德克萨斯，一个是在北部的宾夕法尼亚，目前往欧洲和印度都有出口。

　　“如果出口100万吨乙烷，则需要在码头建设液化装置、存储和装船装置。这些并不是限制条件，当中国的公司开始去采购乙烷或者签署意向合同的时候，对交付此类产品感兴趣的公司自然就会出现。”Dashqutre说。

　　“美国的情况比较乐观，中国在接收方面也没有麻烦，只要是我们的乙烯裂解装置距离港口不是特别远，也可以通过管道来运输，储存需要一些制冷的设备跟上，但是不会比接收LNG更难，所以应该说只要是美国的出口终端能够满足供应的话，我们的接收终端存问题应该不大。”史献平说。

　　Dashqutre告诉记者，中国的东海岸从北部一直到南部有很多接收的港口，建议中国企业好好到这些港口建设存储罐，或对现有的存储罐进行改造，可以用来接收乙烷。Dashqutre表示，其实好需要考虑的是关于建造裂解炉的地点，越接近接收港口越好，这样可以减少管道运输投入。

　　至于海上船运，记者在采访中了解到，随着船舶技术的创新，更适合运输乙烷的船只已经被建造出来。Hartmann集团董事长Alfred Hartmann表示，从美国来到中国大约是2万千米，LPG、LNG船对乙烷的运输并不是很高效，为此Hartmann集团做了创新的的设计，这是一个更加创新、安全、灵活、经济、环保的液化气运输船，可以运输更多的乙烷。

　　“我们每年可以有6次航程，总共是30万吨，如果你有100万吨的话我们需要3.5条船，好多4条船就足够了。”Hartmann说。

Ethylene to Ethylene: The Three Core Issues You Care About, Experts Have Solutions

Recently, the ethane cracked ethylene process has quickly drawn the attention of domestic refining and petrochemical enterprises with its advantages of low cost, high yield and high return. But at the same time, many people in the industry think this route is still at risk. Logistics and supply have all become the focus of their attention. June 14-16 held in Beijing's "2017 (Sixth) Asian Refining and Petrochemical Technology Conference", "In the import of ethane as raw materials in China to develop ethane cracking ethylene feasibility study" & rdquo; & rdquo; In the interview session, several guests conducted wonderful discussions and dialogues on the following topics. In their view, supply, logistics and transportation are no longer problems.

Whether there is a problem with the supply of

Shi Xianping, vice president of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute believes that ethane cracking ethylene line has two major advantages: one Is a lower investment, and second, lower raw material costs, especially ethane is currently at a low price, probably lower than the naphtha 1000 ~ 2000 yuan / ton, a huge cost advantage. However, Shi Xianping cautioned that this route is not only advantageous but also has two disadvantages: one is the raw material risk issue, because there is no ethane resource in the country and mainly relies on imports from the United States, so there are resources, prices and logistics and transportation Of the risk; the other is the product is relatively single, the main products only ethylene, almost no other by-products, once the price of ethylene downstream products, manufacturers will be under great pressure.

According to Darryl W & Rogers, managing director of IHS Oil and NGL Midstream, the supply of ethane is not a major issue and price volatility remains the single biggest risk to the ethane-to-ethylene pipeline.

Rogers said that in terms of supply, the current global demand for ethane is about 1.4 million tons per day and the production capacity of ethane is about 2.4 million tons per day. If there is a certain increase in production capacity in the next two to three years , The supply will also increase.

Will the price fluctuate?

"The current prices of ethane are very low, and there is also a large amount of ethane that helps us to produce ethylene, but we need Consider some traditional cracker as an option because I think the price of ethane will not continue to be depressed. The price of ethane will be linked to the price of crude oil. Historically, according to the use of naphtha in China, the price of ethane may fluctuate greatly in the future. "Rogers said.

On the process side, Michael Bull & J Tall Tall, KBR's chief olefin technology advisor, believes that ethane crack yields can be up to 80%, something none of the other feedstocks can do.

& ldquo; If you do not intend to produce other products, only want ethylene, you can choose to use ethane technical route, if you want other products, such as the production of benzene and other by-products, it is recommended not to use Ethane this technical route. Tallman said.

Logistics construction is able to keep up with certain risks in terms of price, technology and so on. 123)

The industry believes that the logistics of ethane is more optimistic about the logistics and transportation.

It is understood that the transport of ethane mainly includes the situation of the United States pipeline, the export terminal, maritime transport and receiving terminals in China. Ajay Dashqutre, executive vice president of Kantis Group, said that the pipeline facilities in the United States have been very well established. The United States mainly has two ports of exportation of ethane, one in southern Texas and one in northern North Carolina, India has exports.

"If you export 1 million tons of ethane, you will need to build liquefying plants, storage and loading facilities at the terminals. These are not restrictions and as companies in China begin to purchase ethane or sign a contract of intent, companies that are interested in delivering such products will naturally emerge. "Dashqutre said.

"The situation in the United States is relatively optimistic. China does not have any problems in receiving. As long as our ethylene cracker is not very far away from the port, it can also be transported and stored by pipes. Some refrigeration equipment needs to be kept in storage , But it is not harder to receive LNG. Therefore, it should be said that as long as the U.S. export terminal can meet the supply, our receiving terminal should not have any problem. "Shi Xianping said. Dashqutre told reporters Dashqutre told reporters that China's east coast has a lot of receiving ports from the northern part to the southern part of the country. It is advisable for Chinese enterprises to construct storage tanks at these ports or upgrade the existing storage tanks to be used Ethane was received. Dashqutre said that in fact most need to consider is about the location of the construction of cracking furnace, the closer the receiving port the better, so as to reduce pipeline transportation inputs.

As for maritime shipping, the reporter learned from the interview that with the innovation of ship technology, ships more suitable for transporting ethane have been built. Alfred Hartmann, chairman of the Hartmann Group, said he came from the United StatesChina is about 20,000 km and the transport of ethane by LPG and LNG carriers is not very efficient. To this end, the Hartmann Group made an innovative design, which is a more innovative, safe, flexible, economical and environmentally friendly liquefied gas carrier , Can transport more ethane.

"We can have 6 voyages each year, for a total of 300,000 tons. If you have 1 million tons, we need 3.5 boats and a maximum of 4 boats is enough. "Hartmann said.