石化产业转型发展与期货市场论坛现场。(本报记者 张育 摄)

　　编者按 4月20日，由中国石油和化学工业联合会主办的2017石化产业发展大会在大连召开。在会上举行的“石化产业转型发展与期货市场论坛”上，业内专家就我国期货市场发展的特点、成绩、对企业抵御市场风险的作用等问题进行了研讨，并就聚烯烃及相关品种的市场现状进行了广泛而热烈的讨论。

　　4月20日在大连举行的石化产业转型发展与期货市场论坛上，业内人士表示，目前我国已建成 全Q好大商品期货市场，具备了更好服务石化产业的基础和条件。在深化供给侧结构性改革的新形势下，石化企业有必要统筹利用好国际国内、现货期货两个市场，妥善管理原料和产品价格波动风险。

　　助力稳健经营

　　“过去100多年 全Q大宗商品价格形成的演变历史表明，在一个开放的、竞争的市场经济环境中，微观企业乃至政府机构都难以长期、持续影响大宗商品的价格波动方向和波动幅度。单个企业在很大程度上只能被动接受市场价格，其日常经营活动始终面临原材料等要素价格上升引发成本提高、产品价格下跌导致经营收入下降等风险。能否管理好原材料或产品价格波动的风险，已成为微观企业能否实现持续稳健经营的关键因素。经过近170年的发展，公开透明、集中竞价的期货市场已成为当今国际主流的大宗商品定价和风险管理平台。企业可以通过参与期货市场进行套期保值，有效锁定原材料成本和生产利润，实现稳健经营。”大连商品交易所理事长李正强说。

　　据了解，经过20多年的发展，我国已建成 全Q好大的商品期货市场，具备了更好服务石化产业的基础和条件。

　　目前，我国已上市的石化类期货品种包括聚乙烯(PE)、聚氯乙烯(PVC)、聚丙烯(PP)、甲醇(ME)、精对苯二甲酸(PTA)、石油沥青(BU)等，正在推进的还有原油、尿素、乙二醇、涤纶短纤等，为石化产业提供了更加丰富、更全面、更完整的避险产品、工具和策略。

　　据李正强介绍，目前国内90%以上的大中型油脂油料企业、85%以上的棕榈油进口企业，以及包括新疆天业、英力特、远大控股等在内的约600家化工企业，700多家煤焦钢企业都在积极利用大商所市场进行风险管理。其中既有国有企业，也有民营企业，还有不少上市公司。不少企业通过套期保值对冲了价格波动风险，实现了稳定经营。

　　发现未来价格

　　大商所产业拓展部总监蒋巍表示，国内期货交易的发展得益于实体经济的快速发展。当前，国内大宗商品供求非常旺盛，很多产业都有大量商品需求。只要有生产，就有价格波动，所以很多企业需要进行风险管理。

　　据他介绍，当前期货市场价格发现功能日益凸显。目前国内70%的豆粕和棕榈油、40%的豆油等现货贸易均以期货价格进行基差定价;聚乙烯、聚丙烯、铁矿石等期货价格开始成为现货贸易、指数编制等重要依据;远大物产、明日控股等大型贸易商以期货价格为基准，探索开展点价交易等新型贸易方式;中国保险公司开始基于大商所期货价格开发农产品价格保险。

　　“其实每个做经营的人都想知道未来价格怎样，因为它影响行为和决策。我们过去更多希望听专家的意见，但这种意见不一定靠谱。这个时候，期货市场通过机制来解决问题。它有标准化的合约，确定了品质、确定了交割地点，确定了时间。众多投资者在交易时，其实是一种博弈，体现期货市场发现未来价格的功能。而且这种交易是拿真金白银做的，在这种机制下确定的价格具有可信度。”蒋巍如是说。

　　浙江热联中邦投资有限公司董事长劳洪波以塑料行业为例进行分析。据他介绍，一是市场持续新增供应，以前是中石油、中石化，现在是中煤、沿海地炼，地方国企也投了不少供应。二是需求发生较大变化，特别是汽车行业。三是定价越来越 全Q化，传统的定价方式对现在价格的影响越来越少。

　　“现在实体企业无论是上游、贸易商，还是下游，都忍受了一些压力。压力体现在价格的波动，库存的管理，资金和利润的压力。参与期货是为了跑赢市场效率，获得稳定利润。”劳洪波表示。

　　 安期货副总经理石春生说：“为什么企业重视价格管理?从上世纪80年代以来，原油价格及石化相关品种的波动就越来越剧烈，大多企业已承受不了波动。所以，价格管理势在必行。未来谁有定价权、谁有渠道，谁就有话语权。未来有很多不确定性，但期货是真金白银交易出来的，是大家集各方面供求因素表现出来的价格，原本就是为企业提供定价服务，降低成本、优化库存。”

　　石春生表示，从具体品种看，利用期货衍生品对冲风险，优化库存，通过基差点价创新经营模式，在几大行业中，能源和石化行业做得好好，目前从期现价格相关性来看也是好成熟的。

　　“三多三少”待解决

　　但业内人士也认为，与我国实体经济庞大的风险管理需求比，期货市场还有不适应，尤其是市场参与者还存在“三多三少”特征，即散户多、法人少，民营企业多、国有企业少，贸易流通企业多、生产加工企业少。客户结构的不完善，直接影响期货价格的代表性和影响力。同时，产业客户参与不充分，期货市场也将无法有效发挥服务实体经济的作用。

　　“‘三多三少’现象在石化领域比较突出。这与石化上游集中度高、中间贸易商活跃、下游消费企业分散有紧密关系，也与有的企业的会计核算、考核管理体制紧密相关，也与有关方面对期货市场的认识理解不足、甚至存在误解有很大关系。在深化供给侧改革的新形势下，石化企业有必要统筹利用国际国内、现货期货两个市场，妥善管理价格波动风险。”李正强说。

　　据李正强介绍，作为 全Q好大塑料期货市场，近年大商所积极拓展石化产业服务领域，持续优化相关合约规则，努力降低产业客户交易成本，不断提高市场运行效率。大商所通过塑料产业大会、期货学院、化防腐防霉剂工企业EDP培训、大宗商品衍生品业务对接交流会等平台和形式，积极推动石化产业与证券公司、期货公司、基金、银行等开展合作。今后，大商所还将按照“保稳定、抓管理、促转型”的工作方针，在切实履行一线监管职责、严格防范市场风险的前提下，加快推进新品种、新工具建设。

　　李正强还表示，当前石化产业与期货市场共融、共赢发展的大门正打开。他希望相关各方进一步凝聚共识，充分利用期货市场的风险管理工具，推动石化产业稳定健康发展。

　　

Petrochemical enterprises: to prevent market risk, futures to help

Petrochemical Industry Transformation, Development and Futures Market Forum site. (Reporter Zhang Yu-chen)

Editor's note By April 20, 2017 Petrochemical Industry Development Conference hosted by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation was held in Dalian. On the "Petrochemical Industry Transformation and Futures Market Forum" held at the meeting, the experts discussed the characteristics of the development of China's futures market, the achievements and the role of enterprises in resisting market risks. In addition, Variety of the market status of a wide and enthusiastic discussion.

On April 20 at the petrochemical industry restructuring and futures market forum in Dalian, industry insiders said that at present China has built the world's largest commodity futures market and has the basis and conditions for better service to the petrochemical industry. Under the new situation of deepening supply-side structural reforms, it is necessary for petrochemical enterprises to comprehensively utilize both international and domestic futures markets and properly manage the risks of price fluctuations of raw materials and products.

Boosting Stable Operations

"The Evolution of Global Commodity Price Formation over the Past 100 Years The history shows that in an open and competitive market economy, micro-enterprises As well as government agencies, are unable to sustain their impact on the direction and fluctuation of the prices of commodities in the long run. To a large extent, a single enterprise can only passively accept the market price. Its daily operating activities are always exposed to the risks of rising costs due to rising prices of raw materials and other factors, and falling operating prices due to falling product prices. The ability to manage the risk of price volatility of raw materials or products has become a key factor for micro-enterprises to achieve sustainable and steady operation. After nearly 170 years of development, an open and transparent futures market with centralized bidding has become the mainstream international commodity pricing and risk management platform. Enterprises can hedge by participating in the futures market, effectively locking in raw material costs and production profits, and achieving sound management. "Dalian Commodity Exchange chairman Li Zhengqiang said. It is understood that after more than 20 years of development, our country has built the largest commodity futures market in the world and possesses the foundation and conditions for better service to the petrochemical industry. At present, China has listed petrochemical futures varieties including polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polypropylene (PP), methanol (ME), refined terephthalic acid (PTA) (BU), crude oil, urea, ethylene glycol and polyester staple fiber are also being promoted. This has provided the petrochemical industry with more abundant, comprehensive and complete hedging products, tools and strategies. According to Li Zhengqiang, at present, over 90% of domestic large and medium-sized oil and fuel enterprises, over 85% of palm oil import enterprises, and about 600 including Xinjiang Tianye, British Power and Grand Holding Holdings Chemical companies, more than 700 coal-fired steel companies are actively using the market for risk management. Among them are state-owned enterprises, but also private enterprises, there are a lot of listed companies. Many enterprises hedged the risk of price fluctuation through hedging and achieved stable operation.

Discover Future Prices

Jiang Wei, Director of Industrial Development Department of DCE, said that the development of domestic futures trading benefited from the rapid development of real economy. At present, the domestic supply and demand of bulk commodities are very strong, and many industries have a large demand for commodities. As long as there is production, there is price volatility, so many businesses need risk management.

According to him, the current futures market price discovery function has become increasingly prominent. At present, 70% of domestic soybean meal and palm oil, 40% of soybean oil and other spot trade are futures prices base price differential; polyethylene, polypropylene, iron ore and other futures prices began to become spot trade, index preparation and other important basis; lofty Property, Tomorrow Holdings and other large traders to futures prices as a benchmark, to explore the implementation of new trading methods such as point price transactions; Chinese insurance companies began to develop agricultural commodity price insurance based on futures prices. "In fact, everyone who does business wants to know what the future price will be because it affects behavior and decision making. We used to have more hope of hearing the views of experts, but this opinion may not be reliable. This time, the futures market through the mechanism to solve the problem. It has a standardized contract, determines the quality, confirms the place of delivery, and determines the time. Many investors in the transaction, is actually a game, reflecting the futures market to find the function of future prices. And this transaction is done with real money, under which the price set is credible. Jiang Wei said.

Zhejiang Hotline Zhongbang Investment Co., Ltd. Chairman Liu Hongbo plastic industry as an example for analysis. According to him, firstly, the market continued to increase supply. In the past, it was PetroChina and Sinopec. It is now a medium-sized coal and a coastal producer. Local state-owned enterprises also cast a lot of supplies. Second, great changes have taken place in demand, especially in the automotive industry. Third, the pricing is more and more global. The traditional pricing methods have less and less impact on the current prices.

& ldquo; Now physical enterprises, whether upstream, traders, or downstream, have endured some pressure. Pressure is reflected in the price volatility, inventory management, capital and profit pressure. Futures in order to outperform the market efficiency, access to stable profits. "Labor Hongbo said.

Shi Chun-sheng, deputy general manager of Yongan Futures said: "Why companies value price management? Since the 1980s, crude oil prices and petrochemical-related fluctuations in the more volatile, most companies have been unable to withstand fluctuations. Therefore, price management is imperative. Who has pricing power in the future, who has channels, who have the right to speak. Futures are a lot of uncertainty, but the futures are traded out of real money, is a set of all the factors shown in the price of supply and demand, the original is to provide pricing services for enterprises to reduce costs and optimize inventory. Shi Chunsheng said that from the perspective of specific varieties, the use of futures derivatives hedging risks, optimize inventory, base-point innovation business model, in several major industries, the energy and petrochemical industry to do the best, From the current price-related point of view is the most mature.

"More than three three" To be resolved However, the industry also believes that, with our real economy, the huge demand for risk management, the futures market, there are not Adaptation, in particular, there are still market participants "more than three less" characteristics, namely, more retail investors, fewer legal persons, more private enterprises, less state-owned enterprises, trade and circulation enterprises, production and processing enterprises less. Imperfect customer structure, a direct impact on the representativeness of futures prices and influence. At the same time, industrial clients are not fully involved and the futures market will not be able to effectively play the role of serving the real economy.

"More than three small" phenomenon is more prominent in the field of petrochemicals. This is closely related to the high concentration of upstream petrochemicals, active middle traders and the fragmentation of downstream consumer enterprises. It is also closely related to the accounting and assessment and management systems of some enterprises. It is also insufficiently understood or even understood by some parties concerned on the futures market There is a great deal of misunderstanding. Under the new situation of deepening supply-side reform, it is necessary for petrochemical enterprises to make overall use of the two markets, international and domestic, and spot futures, so as to properly manage the risks of price fluctuations. "Li Zhengqiang said. According to Li Zhengqiang, as the largest plastic futures market in the world, in recent years, DCE actively expanded its services in the petrochemical industry, continued to optimize the relevant contractual rules, and worked hard to reduce transaction costs for industrial clients so as to continuously improve the market efficiency. DCE actively promoted the cooperation between petrochemical industry, securities companies, futures companies, funds and banks through such platforms and forms as Plastic Industry Conference, Futures Institute, EDP training for chemical enterprises and docking exchange meetings for commodities derivatives business. In the future, DCE will further accelerate the construction of new varieties and new tools under the working guidelines of "maintaining stability, grasping management and promoting transformation" while earnestly performing first-line regulatory responsibilities and strictly guarding against market risks.

Li Zhengqiang also said that at present the door to communion and win-win development between the petrochemical industry and the futures market is opening up. He hoped all parties involved will further build consensus and make full use of the risk management tools in the futures market to promote the stable and healthy development of the petrochemical industry.