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亚洲 大加氢催化剂生产基地建成

来源: 编辑: 人气:896 时间:2016-03-10

  不少券商分析师认为,随着下游饲料产销旺季到来,叠加环保核查影响,供给将进一步趋紧,维生素产品价格有望进一步突破预期。

  好新数据显示,国内维生素A好高报价上调40元至350元/公斤,较6月低点的120元/公斤,好高涨幅达到190%。目前市场货源紧张,报价呈跳跃式上升趋势。究其原因, 全Q龙头企业即将进入检修期,供给收缩提升市场涨价预期;与此同时,我国浙江地区正接受第四轮环保督查,令国内部分厂家生产受到影响。

  在A股市场上,自5月中旬起,Wind维生素指数连续掀起过两轮大的上涨,8月11日更创出年内新高,上周五开始,该指数连续上涨再度挑战前高,成分股也表现活跃,维生素概念的热度有望继续升温。

  产品普遍提价

  其实,不仅是维生素A,近期多个维生素品种价格都在加速上涨,维生素B1、B3、B6、B12出现不同程度涨幅,维生素B5市场报价环比涨幅超过200%。追根溯源,引发市场报价大幅提升的主要原因在于国内市场供给端的双向收缩。

  一方面,近年来环保政策持续收紧,中央和地方环保督查和安全检查等监管频频,目前,中央已经组织四批环保督查组,分赴各省市进行环保督查工作。医药原料药由于生产过程高污染、高排放,生产企业受到环保压力加大。对维生素领域而言,多数品种由少数几家企业寡头垄断生产,如果部分企业因环保停产,供给端势必剧烈收缩。

  并且,山东和浙江是我国维生素生产大省,尤其是维生素B5和维生素E,分别占 全Q总产能的68%和36%。联讯证券认为,环保督查相关企业停产或产能缩减,支撑维生素价格继续上涨,看好维生素B5和价格待涨的维生素E。维生素原料行业将迎来因环保收紧,导致供给侧收缩带来的整体涨价历史机遇。

  另一方面,在国际市场上,继维生素龙头企业BASF宣布检修四周后,DSM近期也宣布10月开始停产约6-8周。仅以维生素A产品为例,目前水处理药剂 全QVA粉产能约3万吨,而DSM和BASF两大寡头产能合计就达到1.43万吨,占 全Q产能的47.67%。进入9-10月后,VA大厂停产的影响将更加明显,目前甚至有机构预计,上涨趋势仍将维持,VA价格有望上涨至450元/公斤。

  昨日,Wind维生素指数大涨2.01%,在全部180个概念指数中涨幅名列前茅,东北制药、兄弟科技、新和成分别上涨2.22%、2.17%和1.70%,卫信康放量涨停。

  行业龙头更加受益

  维生素产业下游需求较为稳定,主要用于饲料添加剂、医药、化妆品和食品饮料,其中饲料添加剂占比达到80%。对于下游饲料企业,维生素添加有明确的标准,为刚性需求。从成本来看,维生素合计约12个品种,整体占饲料成本的2%-3%,而且涨价可以顺势转移到下游,下游大型企业拥有库存优势,涨价对其提升竞争力更为有利。国海证券分析师认为,此轮环保限量遇上低库存,预计部分小的预混料企业甚至会因为缺货而被迫停产。届时,恐怕价格再高,下游可能都要接受。

  从历史经验看,国内饲料生产较为规律,下半年产量都会逐步提高,7月、8月和9月是产量增长的主要月份,也是对维生素采购的旺季。按照目前库存情况,预计8月底—9月初,供需平衡将达到一个极端。

  申万宏源证券分析师宋涛介绍,近日主流维生素厂家发货紧张,已停报外单。随着第四轮环保督查组进驻浙江,预计新和成、浙江医药等企业开工将受到一定影响。随着下游饲料行业即将进入需求旺季,VA价格反弹有望持续,目前看仍有接近翻倍的涨价空间。

  目前,环保督查组已经开始在山东和浙江展开督查工作。国海证券分析师指出,若生产企业进一步限产,供需将严重失衡,供方可能再大幅提价以弥补限量带来的损失。

  招商证券表示,维生素企业议价能力较强,而下游饲料行业较为分散,同时大部分品种技术壁垒较高,在当前环保压力较大的情况下,部分小企业逐步出清,产业集中度进一步提升。而维生素价格弹性普遍较大,一旦开始提价,未来涨价空间较大。建议投资者重点关注具备更强市场竞争力、更具技术优势的行业龙头标的。

Price boom vitamin market can fly long

Many brokerage analysts believe that with the arrival of the downstream feed production and marketing season, the impact of overlying environmental verification, supply will be further tightened, vitamin product prices are expected to further break through expectations.

The latest data show that the highest domestic vitamin A quotation increased 40 yuan to 350 yuan / kg, compared with the June low of 120 yuan / kg, the highest increase of 190%. The current market supply is tight, the price was leaping upward trend. The reason, the world's leading enterprises is about to enter the overhaul period, shrink supply to enhance market prices expected; at the same time, our country is receiving the fourth round of environmental supervision in Zhejiang Province, so that some domestic manufacturers affected. In the A-share market, the Wind Vitamin Index has risen two consecutive rounds since mid-May and hit a new high for the year on August 11. Since last Friday, the index has risen again and again High before the challenge, the constituent stocks also showed active, the concept of vitamin heat is expected to continue warming. In fact, not only vitamin A, the recent price increases of multiple vitamin varieties are accelerating, vitamin B1, B3, B6, B12 appear different The degree of increase, vitamin B5 market price rose more than 200% chain. Tracing the source, triggering a substantial increase in market prices is mainly due to the two-way contraction of the domestic market supply side.

On the one hand, in recent years, the environmental protection policies have continued to tighten. Supervision over central and local environmental inspections and safety inspections has been frequent. At present, the Central Government has organized four groups of environmental inspection teams to go to various provinces and municipalities for environmental supervision jobs. Due to the high pollution and high emission of pharmaceutical raw materials in the production process, the manufacturing enterprises are under the pressure of environmental protection. For the vitamins sector, most of the species are oligopolized by a few companies, and if some companies stop production due to environmental issues, the supply side is bound to drastically shrink.

Moreover, Shandong and Zhejiang are major vitamins producers in our country, especially vitamin B5 and vitamin E, accounting for 68% and 36% of the global total respectively. United Securities believes that environmental supervision and inspection related companies cut production capacity or reduce support for vitamin prices continue to rise, optimistic about the vitamin B5 and prices to be up for vitamin E. Vitamin raw materials industry will usher in the tightening of environmental protection, leading to supply-side contraction of the overall price rise brought about by the historical opportunity. On the other hand, DSM recently announced that it will stop production in about 6-8 weeks starting from October after four weeks of the overhaul of BASF, a vitamin leader, on the international market. Vitamin A products alone, for example, the current global VA powder production capacity of about 30,000 tons, and DSM and BASF two oligopoly production capacity totaled 14,300 tons, accounting for 47.67% of global capacity. After entering the 9-10 months, the impact of the shutdown of VA manufacturers will be more obvious, there are even agencies expected the upward trend will continue to maintain, VA price is expected to rise to 450 yuan / kg. Yesterday, Wind Vitamin Index soared 2.01%, among the best among all 180 concept indexes, Northeast Pharmaceutical, Brother Technology, Xinhecheng rose 2.22%, 2.17% and 1.70% respectively, .

Industry Leaders Benefit More

The downstream demand of the vitamin industry is relatively stable. It is mainly used for feed additives, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and food and beverage, of which the proportion of feed additives reaches 80% . For downstream feed companies, there is a clear standard for the addition of vitamins to rigid demand. From the cost point of view, the total of about 12 varieties of vitamins, the overall feed costs accounted for 2% -3%, and prices can shift to the downstream homeopathic, large downstream enterprises have inventory advantages, prices to enhance its competitiveness more favorable. Guohai Securities analysts believe that this round of environmental restrictions encountered low inventory, the expected part of the small premix companies even because of out of stock and forced to stop production. By then, I am afraid the price is high, the downstream may have to accept.

Historically, feed production in China has been relatively regular, and output in the second half of the year will gradually increase. July, August and September are the major months for production growth and the peak season for vitamin purchases. According to the current stock situation, it is estimated that the end of August & mdash; early September, supply and demand balance will reach an extreme.

Shen Tao Hongyuan Securities analyst Song Tao introduced the recent mainstream of vitamin manufacturers tight, foreign orders have been closed. With the fourth round of environmental inspection teams stationed in Zhejiang, it is expected that Xinhecheng and Zhejiang Medicine will start their business to some extent. With the downstream feed industry is about to enter the peak season, VA prices rebound is expected to continue, at the moment there is still nearly double the price space.

At present, the environmental inspection team has begun to carry out inspection work in Shandong and Zhejiang. Guohai Securities analysts pointed out that if the production enterprises to further cut-limit supply and demand will be a serious imbalance, the supplier may be substantial price increases to make up for the limited losses.

China Merchants Securities said that vitamin companies bargaining power is stronger, while the downstream feed industry is more dispersed, while most of the varieties of higher technical barriers in the current environmental pressure is greater, some small businesses gradually clear, Industry concentration further improved. The price elasticity of vitamin is generally larger, once the price increases, the future price space. Investors are advised to focus on having the stronger market competitiveness, more technical advantages of the industry leader.

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