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供应紧张驱使亚洲甲醇价格升至3年高点

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  VA、VE目前仍处于供不应求的局面,并且在BASF、安迪苏相继宣布减产,本轮维生素行业景气持续的高度和时间有望持续超市场预期。除环保限产、消费升级等因素推动维生素价格持续上涨外,12月初,印度好大维生素D3厂起火导致D3停产,对行业整体情绪也带来提振作用。

  市场供需趋紧

  昨日,维生素指数逆市领涨,涨幅达到1.97%,优良第二位打板指数1.24个百分点。新和成、金达威、浙江医药、兄弟科技分别上涨8.47%、6.24%、5.08%和3.58%。

  价格方面,VE本月价格报收在100-120元/公斤左右,近日BASF再次发布不可抗力声明,表示只有在柠檬醛及相关维生素中间体厂恢复供应后,才会重新启动维生素A和E的生产。近期国内外VE价格大幅上涨,高价之下,贸易商出货积极性增加,VE市场稳中整理,欧洲市场报价高位维稳在19-23欧元/公斤。

  VA本月价格报收800-850元/公斤,11月底BASF两度发布不可抗力声明。安迪苏法国特殊单体厂被迫降低VA产量700-1000吨,目前预计恢复时间为2018年4月。浙江医药表示不受事故影响,VA生产正常;昌海生物VA项目调试中。帝斯曼瑞士厂在2017年10月开始进行停产改造,持续约6-8周。

  维生素D方面,今年上半年经历一轮大幅提价后进入滞涨阶段,主要是渠道库存去化进度低于预期,导致市场观望情绪增加,但通过近几个月去库存,国内维生素D库存整体已经处于较低水平,考虑到下游客户逐渐进入春季备货期,供需双重提振,有望进一步提升行业景气度。

  中长期看,维生素行业高景气主要源自两方面因素提振:一是国内养殖业回暖带动的饲料需求增长,也直接加大市场维生素产品的需求量;二是在消费升级以及健康观念带动下,以维生素产品为代表的保健品市场需求持续增长。而供给方面,受环保限产影响,部分维生素添加剂市场供应量缩减。

  景气或持续向上

  今年11月,维生素市场价格走势分化严重,部分前期涨幅较高的品种出现回调,但由于巴斯夫事故影响,维生素A和维生素E涨幅较大,月累计涨幅达到58.5%和135.2%。

  事实上,BASF是世界第二大维生素A生产商,BASF维生素A的 全Q市场份额达到26%。此外,BASF同样为安迪苏提供维生素A前体,安迪苏饲料级维生素A的 全Q市场份额约为15%,另外部分采购巴斯夫柠檬醛的维生素A厂商也将受到影响。根据巴斯夫自身说明以及终端用户目前反馈情况看,此次维生素A的供给缺口维持时间或许至明年一季度。目前市场上维生素A供应特别紧张。据博亚和讯了解,市场上部分原定今年四季度交货的维生素A订单会被推迟到2018年高季度执行。

  招商证券认为,维生素新一轮行业景气周期即将到来。2017年时养殖业禁养令好后一年,随着散养养殖户被淘汰,行业集中度上升,饲料行业的爆发将带动维生素需求增长。此外,维生素生产过程环保要求高,环保趋严造成市场货源偏紧,行业开工率下滑。维生素新一轮行业景气周期即将到来,预计此轮景气上行周期持续时间较长。

  中信建投认为,维生素产品需求刚性叠加成本占比低,使维生素下游对价格敏感度较低,又由于维生素行业技术壁垒较高且规模效应显著,产能集中度高,呈现寡头垄断格局,厂家具有较高议价权,行业景气有望长期持续。

High boom difficult to reverse the vitamin market is still flying

VA, VE is still in short supply at present, and in BASF, Adisseo have announced the reduction of output, the current vitamin industry boom height and time is expected to continue super market expectations. In addition to environmental restrictions on production, consumer upgrades and other factors to promote vitamin prices continued to rise, early December, India's largest vitamin D3 factory led to the killing of D3 production, the industry's overall mood also boost.

Tight supply and demand in the market

Yesterday, the Vitamin Index bucked the market trend with a gain of 1.97% and the leading index of the second board reached 1.24%. Xinhecheng, Jin Dawei, Zhejiang Medicine and Brothers Technology rose 8.47%, 6.24%, 5.08% and 3.58% respectively.

Prices, VE reported this month, the price closed at 100-120 yuan / kg, the recent release of force majeure once again BASF statement, said only in the citral and related vitamin intermediates factory resumed supply, it will restart Vitamin A and E production. Recent VE prices at home and abroad rose sharply, under high prices, traders shipped increased enthusiasm, VE market, steady consolidation, the European market high stability maintenance at 19-23 euros / kg.

VA this month, the price closed at 800-850 yuan / kg, at the end of November BASF issued a force majeure statement twice. The Adisseo French factory was forced to reduce its VA production by 700-1000 tons and currently expects to resume in April 2018. Zhejiang Medical said it was not affected by the accident, VA production is normal; Changhai Biological VA project debugging. The DSM Swiss plant started its decommissioning in October 2017 for about 6-8 weeks. Vitamin D, the first half of this year experienced a sharp increase in prices after entering the stagflation stage, mainly channel inventory to the progress of less than expected, causing the market to wait and see mood increased, but through the stock in recent months , Domestic vitamin D inventories as a whole have been at a low level, taking into account the gradual entry of customers into the spring stocking period, supply and demand double boost, is expected to further enhance the industry boom. In the medium to long term, the high boom in the vitamin industry is mainly driven by two factors: first, feed demand driven by the domestic aquaculture industry warming up and direct demand for vitamin products in the market; secondly, Driven by health promotion and health concept, the market demand for health products represented by vitamin products continued to grow. On the supply side, the supply of some vitamin additives is curtailed by the limited production of environmental protection. In November of this year, the price of vitamin in the market had a sharp differentiation with some varieties with higher initial gains. However, due to the impact of BASF, vitamin A and vitamin E increased more than the previous year Large, month cumulative increase reached 58.5% and 135.2%.

In fact, BASF is the world's second-largest vitamin A producer with BASF Vitamin A reaching 26% of the world market. In addition, BASF also supplies Adisseo with vitamin A precursors and Adisseo feed grade vitamin A has a global market share of approximately 15%. In addition, some vitamin A manufacturers purchasing BASF citral will also be affected. According to BASF's own description and current end-user feedback situation, the vitamin A supply gap may be maintained until the first quarter of next year. Vitamin A supply is particularly tense on the market today. According to Boyaa and hearing that some of the market scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of this year, vitamin A orders will be postponed until the first quarter of 2018 implementation.

China Merchants Securities believes that a new round of vitamin industry boom cycle is coming. In the last year of the Breeding Ban in 2017, as the free-range farmers were eliminated, the concentration of the industry increased and the outbreak of the feed industry would boost the demand for vitamins. In addition, vitamin production process requires high environmental protection, environmental protection, tightened the market tight supply, the industry operating rate decline. A new round of vitamin industry boom cycle is approaching, this cycle is expected to cycle up longer duration.

CSC believes that the rigid demand for vitamin products overlay the proportion of low, so that the lower the price of vitamin sensitivity is lower, but also because of high vitamin industry technical barriers and significant economies of scale, high concentration capacity, showing Oligopoly structure, manufacturers have a higher bargaining power, the industry is expected to continue the long-term economy.

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